For Emergency BLOOD requirement in any city in India, SMS to 5676775
"Blood <
s p a c e > PIN code of your city < s p a c e > required blood group < s p a c e > your name"

Thursday 29 November 2007

Nifty Expiry Day - Jan to Oct 2007

Have a look below and you will see the expiry day nifty intraday movement - what it has been doing .....? A quick look shows that the last one hour or so is the time when nifty bangs on up or down by 30 to 50 points. Is that trade-able ? Well it all depends what your mind set it . Some intraday jobbers work huge volumes and small gains. Some try with small volumes but large gains.
How can we try and trade these moves tomorrow ? Expiry of September was the only one out of the 10 images that you see below that have had spikes in the last one hour or two. How can we trade them ? If you know the direction, take a position in that direction. Some smart people do this. They keep an eye on the PUTS and CALLS of each pair of nifty strikes. The premiums rapidly start deteriorating.Keep an eye on the nifty and on the PUT-CALL pair. The moment both become same, theoretically that is the entry point. But ideally it does not happen. The lesser the time left, the better are the rates. Say if you are able to get a PUT-CALL pair at 5 to 10 bucks, that is a good price. At 10, one needs 20 points to cover the cost. Or even so, if you wish to trade only one side, one can observe that one side remains strong where premium does not dip. So this perhaps is the best direction.
In some cases, it so happens that one pair which is close to the current price starts generating huge volumes. Huge volumes generally are indications when the punters just close nifty there ........ where all the PUTS and CALLS get destroyed. Nobody earns here and it just is s total whitewash.Such situations have to be avoided.
Best of luck for Thursday.










........................... Click here to read more!

Wednesday 28 November 2007

Reliance Industries Ltd

News Verification : The media had reports that Reliance Industries Ltd may buy out Reliance Natural Resources Limited (RNRL), for a substantial sum. The Exchange, in order to verify the accuracy or otherwise of the information reported in the media and to inform the market place so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded, had written to the officials of the company. Reliance Industries Ltd has vide its letter inter-alia stated, "The Company does not comment on speculative media reports."
........................... Click here to read more!

Jaiprakash Associates Limited

News Verification : The media had reports that Jaiprakash Associates Limited may acquire Bina Power (BPC) in Madhya Pradesh. The Exchange, in order to verify the accuracy or otherwise of the information reported in the media and to inform the market place so that the interest of the investors is safeguarded, had written to the officials of the company. Jaiprakash Associates Limited has vide its letter inter-alia stated,"We wish to inform the Exchange that in an expanding organization like ours, exploring new business opportunities is a continuous process. As a sequel to this effort, we keep examining various proposals including the one referred. The Stock Exchanges will be informed if and as soon as the proposal gets crystalised."
........................... Click here to read more!

Walchandnagar Industries Ltd.

Walchandnagar Industries Ltd had informed the Exchange regarding the issue of Bonus Shares in the ratio of 1:1, subject to approval of shareholders and other necessary regulatory approvals. The Company has now informed the Exchange that: "We further wish to clarify that the bonus share will be issued through capitalization of free reserves in 1:1 ratio on equity share(s) held on the record date to be announced at a later date. Upon allotment of Bonus Shares, the equity share capital will be of Rs.600.90 Lakhs instead of Rs.300.45 Lakhs at present".
........................... Click here to read more!

New FnO Stocks

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE OF INDIA LIMITED

FUTURES & OPTIONS SEGMENT

CIRCULAR

Circular No. NSE/F&O/106/2007 November 28, 2007

Download No: NSE/FAOP/9828

Dear Members

Introduction of futures and options contracts on 15 additional individual securities

With reference to circulars no NSE/F&O/0014/2001 dated June 29, 2001, NSE/F&O/0027/2001 dated November 07, 2001, SEBI circular SMDRP/DNPD/CIR -26/2004/07/16 dated July 16, 2004, and approval received from SEBI, members are hereby notified that the following 15 additional securities will be available for trading in F&O segment with effect from November 30, 2007:

Sr no.

Security Name

Symbol

1

JINDAL SAW LIMITED

JINDALSAW

2

KPIT CUMMINS INFOSYSTEMS

KPIT

3

DEVELOP CREDIT BANK LTD

DCB

4

HINDUSTAN ZINC LIMITED

HINDZINC

5

MOTOR INDUSTRIES CO LTD

MICO

6

INFO EDGE (I) LTD

NAUKRI

7

NIIT LIMITED

NIITLTD

8

GREAT OFFSHORE LTD

GTOFFSHORE

9

WIRE & WIRELESS (I) LTD.

WWIL

10

REDINGTON (INDIA) LTD.

REDINGTON

11

NETWORK 18 FINCAP LTD.

NETWORK18

12

GLOBAL BROADCAST NEWS LTD

GBN

13

ISPAT INDUSTRIES LIMITED

ISPATIND

14

HINDUSTAN OIL EXPLORATION

HINDOILEXP

15

GITANJALI GEMS LIMITED

GITANJALI


The details of market lot and list of contracts being made available for trading in the above securities will be informed to members separately through a circular on November 29, 2007.

For any clarification members are requested to contact following officials

Arvind Goyal, Sachin Dhar & Janardhan Gujaran on 022-26598151, 022-26598152

For National Stock Exchange of India Ltd.


Suprabhat Lala Assistant Vice President (F&O Trade)
........................... Click here to read more!

Stocks in FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 27th November 2007 for the November series:
Top Gainers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
BONGAIREFN 89 101.9 88.2 99.8 13.8
INDIAINFO 1170 1326.95 1167 1296.55 8.31
ESSAROIL 187.5 226.9 187.5 223.45 4.22
ASHOKLEY 40.75 48.75 40.6 48.1 0.12






Top Losers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
SUNPHARMA 1110 1126.9 1097 1121.25 -58.97
PARSVNATH 338 353.9 338 345.1 -51.9
PNB 593 603 585.3 600.65 -44.89
RAJESHEXPO 840 853.6 840 846.2 -44.54
HDFCBANK 1603 1664 1603 1643.1 -43.99
BHUSANSTL 1591 1591.1 1338 1374.9 -42.89
JSWSTEEL 992 1039 985 997.35 -39.03
CMC 971 1000 971 995.1 -36.64
SESAGOA 3400 3456 3381 3405.35 -36.46
SUZLON 1915 1948.35 1905 1922.8 -35.34
HDIL 734.1 760 724.6 753.3 -34.68
JPASSOCIAT 1686 1742.8 1676 1721.1 -33.52
VOLTAS 237.3 238.9 227.7 230.85 -33.49
AXISBANK 930 956.5 930 939.25 -32.5
BHARATFORG 336.8 340.4 332.2 333.75 -32.27
APTECHT 370 384.3 368.1 375.05 -32.25
HDFC 2670 2748 2652 2720.6 -32.17
LITL 442 478 435.3 469.35 -32.04
ONGC 1165 1195.75 1165 1181.35 -31.91
AIAENG 1514 1513.95 1483 1499 -31.67
DRREDDY 612.5 616.5 610 615.05 -31.26
GRASIM 3790 3794 3710 3768.95 -30.74
I-FLEX 1457 1560 1431 1527.5 -30.29



Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 27th November 2007 for the December series:
Top Gainers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
CMC 1003 1009.9 986.9 1004 377.94
EDUCOMP 3325 3345 3290 3304.2 360.36
SHREECEM 1425 1430 1400.1 1400.5 300
CORPBANK 418 418 404 408.95 277.78
HINDUJATMT 560 599 560 571.9 266.11
AIAENG 1520 1537.05 1485 1502.65 263.75
HDIL 740 765.5 734.55 758.5 249.31
NDTV 355 363.6 351.5 355.45 249.25
INDIANB 182 185.5 179.5 182.4 246.3






Top Losers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
BHUSANSTL 1590 1590 1336 1374.05 -13.07

........................... Click here to read more!

Mutual Fund and FII Activity

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 27-Nov-2007.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 27-Nov-2007 3408.27 3906.62 -498.35

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 27-Nov-2007.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 27-Nov-2007 1262.29 963.96 298.33


Trends in Transactions on Stock Exchanges by Mutual Funds
(as on 26-NOV-2007)


Trading Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores)
26-NOV-2007 Equity 766.60 513.70 252.90
Debt 1212.00 456.10 756.00
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 26-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by Mutual Funds.

Daily Trends in FII Investments on 27-NOV-2007

Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
27-NOV-2007 Equity 3325.50 2855.30 470.20 116.60
Debt 184.60 35.00 149.50 37.10

The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 27-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s).

Daily Trends in FII Investments on 27-NOV-2007

Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-NOV-2007 Equity 5442.20 5214.20 228.00 56.50
Debt 17.00 55.50 (38.50) (9.50)
02-NOV-2007 Equity 5179.40 4998.80 180.60 44.80
Debt 49.60 0.00 49.60 12.30
05-NOV-2007 Equity 3322.70 4084.10 (761.40) (188.80)
Debt 175.40 119.50 55.90 13.80
06-NOV-2007 Equity 4550.20 5207.10 (656.80) (162.80)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-NOV-2007 Equity 4092.30 4087.20 5.10 1.30
Debt 0.00 123.60 (123.60) (30.60)
08-NOV-2007 Equity 4156.90 4119.20 37.70 9.30
Debt 146.70 121.60 25.00 6.20
12-NOV-2007 Equity 4366.10 4653.00 (286.90) (71.10)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-NOV-2007 Equity 4550.00 5370.00 (820.00) (203.30)
Debt 0.00 26.20 (26.20) (6.50)
14-NOV-2007 Equity 5186.80 5064.60 122.20 30.30
Debt 0.00 8.50 (8.50) (2.10)
15-NOV-2007 Equity 5112.60 4160.60 952.00 236.00
Debt 186.00 96.70 89.30 22.10
16-NOV-2007 Equity 4464.30 3675.90 788.40 195.40
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-NOV-2007 Equity 3508.90 3588.00 (79.10) (19.60)
Debt 10.50 14.90 (4.40) (1.10)
20-NOV-2007 Equity 3859.70 3886.50 (26.80) (6.70)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-NOV-2007 Equity 4816.70 5888.80 (1072.10) (265.80)
Debt 30.00 65.30 (35.30) (8.80)
22-NOV-2007 Equity 3246.60 5469.00 (2222.40) (550.90)
Debt 0.00 242.70 (242.70) (60.20)
23-NOV-2007 Equity 3328.70 4172.50 (843.90) (209.20)
Debt 50.40 48.40 2.00 0.50
26-NOV-2007 Equity 2756.30 2929.70 (173.40) (43.00)
Debt 174.00 367.40 (193.40) (47.90)
27-NOV-2007 Equity 3325.50 2855.30 470.20 116.60
Debt 184.60 35.00 149.50 37.10
The investments corresponding to reporting date 26-Feb-2007 include prior period adjustments.

The prior period adjustments are based on transactions of new sub accounts during the period from 01-Jan-2007 to 26-Feb-2007 and the same is given below:

Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
Prior period adjustments - Equity 3518.41 87.66 3430.75 773.91
The above adjustments are due to migration of data of new sub accounts to portal based new system of reporting.
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 27-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s).

........................... Click here to read more!

Nifty Intra Day Data

The data is in two different formats. Choose the one that you like. Data can be used for technical analysis softwares of amibroker or metastock or advanced get or what ever .....

Minute Data for Nifty Spot only for Tuesday 27th November 2007 :

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
date,time,open,high,low,close
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72775526/intraday.rar.html

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
ticker,date,time,open,high,low,close,volume,openint
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72776377/intraday.rar.html

Minute Data for Nifty Spot until Tuesday 27th November 2007 :
csv format with headers ----->>>>>
date,time,open,high,low,close
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72775244/nifty.rar.html

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
ticker,date,time,open,high,low,close,volume,openint
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72776391/nifty.rar.html
........................... Click here to read more!

Tuesday 27 November 2007

Warren Buffet-A legend in the investment world

"If a business does well, the stock eventually follows.” Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett, a billionaire investor, businessperson and philanthropist. Warren Buffett, the man, is just as hard to define as Warren Buffett, the investor. He projects a down-to-earth prudence but one suspects that he plays his personality as close to the chest as he does his investment secrets. Behind Bill Gates, he is well known as the second or third richest man in the world.

As a boy, irrespective of his family background, he delivered newspapers to make extra money and this probably sparked his interest in the media where he has made several successful investments including the Washington Post Company, a stock that has made him a lot of money and which he vows never to sell.

His everlasting attitude of value investing has proven relevant and profitable in all types of markets and financial environments, and has never gone out of style. Following his simple strategies, he has built the holding company Berkshire Hathaway to a powerhouse with a market value of $196 billion. As the largest shareholder and CEO, his net worth is about $52 billion. Warren Buffett has made his reputation as the "world's greatest investor" by taking the longer view, buying quality stocks with good earnings power and staying with them through stock markets.

Discovery of Berkshire Hathaway
The decisive moment in his career was Berkshire Hathaway, a large textile company in a depressed industry, whose shares were selling for less than its working capital. He began purchasing its shares in 1962, and eventually dissolved his partnerships to run Berkshire Hathaway. He used the Berkshire cash flow to purchase private businesses and the stock of public companies. Eventually, he sold off the worsening textile operations and converted Berkshire Hathaway to an investment holding company. His early focus was on acquiring insurance companies, which invest large cash reserves to pay future claims.
Warren Buffett's Investment Principles

Warren Buffett does not readily disclose the investments
He is prepared, however, and does so regularly, to outline general principles of sound investment. These have a consistent theme and can be summed up like this.

Stock investments should be looked at in the same way as buying a business. The stock investor is really buying a tiny share or partnership and should apply the same principles that they would in buying a business

1. The company should be soundly managed. Tests of good management include:

Share buybacks
Good use of retained earnings
Sticking to what you know

2. The company has demonstrated earning capacity with a likelihood that this will continue. Tests of earning capacity include:

Company growth
Dealing with inflation
Capital expenditure
Look through earnings
Brand names

3. The company should have consistently high returns. Warren Buffett would look at both:

Returns on equity
Returns on capital

4. The company should have a prudent approach to debt.

5. The businesses of the company should be simple and the investor should have an understanding of the company.

See case studies

6. Assuming that all these thresholds are satisfied, the investment should only be made at a reasonable price, with a margin of safety. This is always a matter for independent judgment by the investor but it is relevant to consider:

Price/earnings ratios
Earnings and Dividend yields
Book value
Comparative rates of return

8. Investors need to take a long term approach
........................... Click here to read more!

Nifty Intra Day Data

The data is in two different formats. Choose the one that you like. Data can be used for technical analysis softwares of amibroker or metastock or advanced get or what ever .....

Minute Data for Nifty Spot only for Monday 26th November 2007 :

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
date,time,open,high,low,close
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72546928/intraday.rar.html

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
ticker,date,time,open,high,low,close,volume,openint
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72547940/intraday.rar.html

Minute Data for Nifty Spot until Monday 26th November 2007 :
csv format with headers ----->>>>>
date,time,open,high,low,close
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72547160/nifty.rar.html

csv format with headers ----->>>>>
ticker,date,time,open,high,low,close,volume,openint
in compressed format from the below link
http://rapidshare.com/files/72548141/nifty.rar.html
........................... Click here to read more!

Sunday 25 November 2007

Zodiac Clothing Company

Company Update

Expansion of retail network, large installed capacities and existing strategic relationships with Shoppers Stop (holding of 2.9% shares valued at Rs51cr) are some of the advantages that ZCC enjoys to tap the emerging domestic and outsourcing opportunities. Further, we believe the stock is trading at a considerable discount to its peers, which are trading at around 30x FY2009E EPS.

Company Background

Promoted by MY Noorani in 1954, Zodiac Clothing Company (ZCC) is one of the oldest branded garment exporter with a diversified geographical mix ofexport and domestic sales, and a significant retail presence in the country. ZCC is a Mumbai-based vertically integrated design driven and marketing led clothing company, which has operations ranging from design to retail. The company manufactures premium shirts and ties, men’s accessories and trousers. ZCC’s Zod brand is a phenomenal success. ZCC has operations primarily in India, UAE, Germany, USA and UK.
The company’s major export markets include USA, UK, Europe and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East and Latin America. A major part of ZCC’s export business functions under a private label (the customer’s brand). Zodiac imports more than 50% of the total raw material requirements.The company sources it’s raw materials from Europe as well as from low-cost countries like Taiwan and China, thereby containing the raw material costs.

ZCC plans US foray and entery into women’s western wear segment: ZCC is set to enter the highly competitive US market with its branded shirts. ZCC is already present in the West European and West Asian markets. ZCC also plans to enter the fastest growing Women’s western wear segment.Also on the anvil are company’s plans to launch its third men’s wear brand (after Zodiac and Zod) in the country. Segmenting the men’s wear market further, the third brand with occasion-based clothing would be targeting males in the mid-20 to 30 years age group.


Expanding Retail network: ZCC retails its brands through three distinct retail channels viz., MBOs estimated at around 1,000 which contribute around 50% of branded revenues;Organized retailers such as Shopper’s Stop, Lifestyle, etc., which contribute to around 20% of branded sales; Exclusive owned stores for Zodiac and Zod. ZCC had 57 stores (2HFY2008), which contribute approximately 30% of branded sales.
ZCC has aggressive plans to increase its retail presence and distribution through its own exclusive stores (currently 57 stores) and through a national chain of stores. The plan includes roll out of 30 exclusive stores per annum over the next three years, with a yearly capex of around Rs20cr. The retail stores would be on lease but managed by ZCC. It also expects to open its shop in Dubai. The brand is already available across the West Asian markets.


Favourable shift in Revenue-mix: ZCC’s turnover is derived from a blend of exports and domestic sales in the ratio of 67:33. However, rapid addition of owned stores in the domestic market is expected to change the ratio to 60:40 wherein contribution from domestic sales will increase and aid expansion in OPMs. ZCC has a capex of Rs40cr to be completed over FY2008-09E for owned store rollouts. This will be entirely funded through internal accruals and debt.

Fund raising Plans for entering higher growth phase: ZCC has embarked on a Rs250cr expansion plan, which would be funded through the issue of 15lakh shares to the non promoters and 4.4lakh convertible warrants to the promoters at a price to be decided later.

Valuation

At Rs440, the stock trades at 11.8x FY2008E and 9.7x FY2009E EPS of Rs37.3 and Rs45.6, respectively. We have revised our FY2009E Earnings upwards by 19%. Hence, we re-iterate a Buy on the stock, with a revised 12-month Target Price of Rs547(Rs380).

----- With due apologies and full credits to Angel Broking Limited
........................... Click here to read more!

Oriental Bank of Commerce

Company Update

Oriental Bank of Commerce (OBC) is one of the oldest banks in India with the government holding 51%. OBC merged GTB with itself in December 2004. At the time of the merger, GTB's accumulated losses stood at Rs1,225cr and OBC was saddled with higher amount of NPAs. We believe that concerns regards OBC's Asset quality are overdone. OBC is expected to increase its Fee- based revenue significantly and it’s Cost to Income ratio is expected to remain the best in the industry due to the technological initiatives taken by the Bank. NIMs of the Bank are likely to remain stable with an upward bias.OBC trades at the lowest end of the PSU Banks' valuation, which ranges at 1.0x-2.0x FY2009E Book Value. Based on OBC’s FY2009E RoAA and RoANW of 1.1% and 15.8% respectively, we believe that OBC should re-rate to 1.2x FY2009E Book Value.

IT initiative on track, to support growth in Fee Income: OBC has beefed up its IT initiative with the computerisation of all its branches and ATMs and implementation of its core banking solution (CBS) at all major branches. Around 99% of the Bank's total business is attributed to its CBS. This has helped OBC extend reach of its products and services, which has in turn boosted its Fee-based Income. The Bank’s core Fee-based Income has grown at a CAGR of 38.7% during FY2004-07 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 21.2% over FY2007-09E.

Low Operating costs among PSBs: OBC's establishment cost is one of the lowest in the public sector banking (PSB) space with a Cost/Income ratio of 43.5% as against the industry average of over 50%. OBC's lower operating cost is attributed to lower Employee cost and strong growth in Fee Income. Pertinently, low Operating costs is expected to boost the Bank's Earnings going ahead. It is on account of this that OBC is comparatively a superior bet over other PSBs as against the backdrop of a rising Employee costs scenario.

NIMs under pressure but expected stabilise at current levels: Post the merger with GTB, the Bank's NIMs have been under pressure. NIMs have fallen from 4.0% in FY2004 to 2.4% in 1HFY2008. Currently, 29% of the Bank’s Total Deposits constituted Bulk Deposits apart from the Bank having a comparatively low CASA ratio of 27%. Going ahead, in its bid to improve NIMs, OBC has been focusing on reducing its Bulk Deposits, enhance its CASA ratio and increase its exposure to the high-yielding Retail Advances segment. NIMs are also expected to get boost in 2HFY2008 on the back of a favourable liquidity situation as Bulk deposits will come up for re-pricing. We expect the Bank's NIMs to stabilise at 2.5% by FY2009E.

Total business growth to remain healthy: Going ahead, we expect OBC's business to grow at a healthy CAGR of 19.1% (on a higher base) over FY2007-09E, with Advances and Deposits growing at a CAGR of 20.7% and 18.0% respectively, in the above-mentioned period. Over FY2004-07, the Bank's Total business grew at a healthy CAGR of 25%.

Outlook and Valuation

At Rs251, the stock trades at a P/ABV 1.0x and P/E of 6.2x FY2009E ABV of Rs 253 and EPS of Rs40.2, respectively. The Bank could witness a bounce back in core Earning in 2HFY2008 on the back of stable NIMs, impressive core Fee-based Earnings and contained cost of operations. Healthy recoveries could also provide a positive surprise at the Bottomline. A favourable risk-return trade off increases our confidence in OBC. We re-iterate a Buy on the stock, with a revised Target Price of Rs315 (Rs270).

----- With due apologies and full credits to Angel Broking Limited
........................... Click here to read more!

Idea Cellular

An upwardly mobile ‘Idea’

Idea Cellular, a pure-play wireless operator, has not missed out on its share of the spoils in India's phenomenally successful mobile telephony story. This has been the case despite the company not being a pan-India player, having a presence in 11 of the 23 telecom circles in the country. Going ahead, we expect the company to grow at a faster-than-industry average rate and continue to reap the benefits of India's explosive mobile telecom growth story, making it the fastest-growing telco under our coverage.

Strong focus on execution post-management changes: Idea Cellular, after several changes in its shareholding pattern, finally passed into the hands of the Aditya Birla Group in mid-2006 with the exit of the Tata Group. Post the takeover, Idea has focussed strongly on execution and this has been reflected in its marketshare, which has been steadily rising. On account of shareholder issues through a significant part of its operating history, important management time was spent on resolving these issues, leading to an inconsistent performance on the marketshare front. With these issues now sorted out, the company has placed a strong focus on execution and with an experienced management team in place, seems set to record strong growth going forward.

Tower hive off to improve operational efficiencies: In line with the industry leaders Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications (RCOM), Idea's Board of Directors have also decided to hive off its passive telecom infrastructure into wholly-owned subsidiaries, subject to court approval. With the concept of infrastructure sharing taking off in India, this is likely to enable the company to improve its operational and capex efficiencies. The value of its tower business on a ball-park basis works out to Rs23 per share.

Fastest-growing telco, EPS CAGR of 73.6% over FY2007-09E: Idea Cellular is expected to maintain rapid growth over the next few years, driven primarily by strong accretion to its mobile subscriber base. We forecast Topline and Bottomline to grow at a CAGR of 45.2% and 73.6% respectively, over FY2007-09E, making the company the fastest-growing telco under our coverage.

Outlook and Valuation

Going forward, we expect Idea Cellular to record a Topline CAGR growth of 45.2% and Bottomline CAGR growth of 73.6% over FY2007-09E. EBITDA Margins are expected to be largely flat on account of significant expansion costs that the company would have to incur to expand its network across the country.
We expect the Topline growth to come primarily from strong accretion to Idea’s mobile subscriber base, which we expect will hit 33.7mn by FY2009 from 14.0mn in FY2007, a CAGR growth of over 55%. This we expect will grow at a faster rate than the overall industry average, which is 46%. This is expected to lead to some marketshare gains. We expect Idea to record marketshare of 9.8% by FY2009E vis-a-vis 8.7% in FY2007. However, we expect the pressure on ARPUs to continue and estimate an 11% CAGR fall over FY2007-09E.
At Rs120, the stock trades at a P/E of 20.9x FY2009E EPS, EV/EBITDA of 12.1x FY2009E EBITDA and an EV/subscriber of US $274.5 on our FY2009E subscriber base. We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy recommendation and 12-month Target Price of Rs142. This is excluding any potential benefits derived from the hiving off of its tower business.

----- With due apologies and full credits to Angel Broking Limited
........................... Click here to read more!

Tata Chemicals

Aspiring to touch New Horizons

Tata Chemicals (TCL) is a leading player in inorganic chemicals and the largest player in soda ash in India. With the Brunner Mond acquisition, TCL has now become the third largest soda ash player in the world with over 3.0mt capacity. Rising demand and strong soda ash prices thereof coupled with backward integration into phosphoric acid (through 33% stake in IMACID) augurs well for TCL. We believe, going ahead, a favourable business environment and capacity additions will sustain the company’s Earnings momentum.


Company Background

TCL is a leading player in the inorganic chemicals segment in India. TCL’s business is classified into two segments viz., inorganic chemicals (including food additives) and fertilisers, which contributed 54% and 46% to FY2007 consolidated Top-line, respectively. On a standalone basis, the segments contributed 37% and 63% to Top-line respectively, in FY2007. Inorganic chemicals comprise soda ash, salt, cement, etc., while fertilisers comprise phosphatic fertilisers like di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), mono-ammonium phosphate (MOP), NPK, etc. TCL’s products find application in various industries ranging from agriculture to pharmaceutical.

Investment Arguments

  • Strong Soda Ash demand to keep prices firm: Global soda ash demand has been growing 3-4% pa, in the last few years and is expected to continue to grow at same levels over the next 3-4 years as well. Domestic demand for soda ash is expected to grow at 4.5-5% pa following demand from detergents (3-3.5%) and rising construction activity fueling glass demand. We believe that strong demand, high utilisation rates and slower pace in capacity additions would keep the soda ash prices firm over the next 2-3 years.
  • Capacity expansions to meet rising demand for Soda Ash: TCL currently has over 3.0mt of consolidated soda ash capacity. To meet the rising demand for soda ash TCL has planned capex Rs300-350cr to augment its domestic and international soda ash capacity by over 6,00,000 tonnes over the next couple of years. TCL's new soda ash capacities are expected to come on stream when there would be a capacity crunch globally and soda ash prices are ruling strong.
  • Branded Salt and Cement to be Earnings' accretive: We expect TCL's Salt sales to grow at a CAGR of 9-10% over the next couple of years. On the back of strong cement demand, TCL is expanding capacity of its Mithapur plant by over 20% from 0.5mt to 0.6mt, which will add to Earnings.

Outlook and Valuation

TCL has earmarked over Rs500cr for various expansions, which is expected to drive volumes going ahead. Ongoing expansions will be completed over the next couple of years in a phased manner and effects of the same will be fully reflected in the company’s FY2010E performance. We believe that the global prices of chemicals will remain strong and hence are positive for the company’s future growth prospects. The company has investments of over Rs36/ share (value as on March 2007 and inclusive of both quoted and unquoted investments). At Rs303, the stock is available at 10.9x consolidated FY2008E EPS of Rs27.8 and 9.0x consolidated FY2009E EPS of Rs33.6. We Initiate Coverage on the stock, with a Buy recommendation and Target Price of Rs387.

----- With due apologies and full credits to Angel Broking Limited

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Stocks in FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 23rd November 2007 for the November series:

Top Gainers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE in O.I.
NEYVELILIG 189.35 220 181.25 215.9 11.74
CESC 592.2 609.95 583.5 595.25 11.18
JPHYDRO 100.7 111 97.5 108.85 9.47
ESSAROIL 192.4 199 184 196.2 8.23
TATAPOWER 1165 1179.8 1096 1157.45 4.26
BILT 164.7 173 158.35 162.45 4.17
NICOLASPIR 312 312 295.2 300.35 2.33






Top Losers% CHANGE






SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE in O.I.
GESHIP 456 474.5 453 467.6 -38.1
BHARATFORG 329.45 349.4 328 338 -33.63
ULTRACEMCO 1000 1015 993 998.2 -32.1
BANKBARODA 367 367 351 355.9 -26.96
MPHASIS 270.35 272 269 271.25 -23.75
CHENNPETRO 382 384.4 350.5 367.1 -23.51
BAJAJAUTO 2504.9 2556 2475.2 2543.25 -22.59
MTNL 166.5 167.5 163.2 165.85 -21.23
UNIONBANK 178.9 178.9 168.05 170.6 -20.24
BHUSANSTL 1105 1120 1072 1089.6 -19.52
BRFL 323 323 296.55 306.35 -18.46
HDFCBANK 1612.7 1612.7 1548.7 1571.5 -17.97
AXISBANK 943 953.8 918.3 934.25 -16.24
TATACHEM 304.5 309.4 301.95 308.1 -15.91
WOCKPHARMA 406.55 407.5 399 401.75 -15.74
SBIN 2265 2282.2 2207.6 2262.5 -15.47
ADLABSFILM 881.15 925.9 865 894.1 -15.41
SKUMARSYNF 151.9 152 144 147.15 -15.3
AIRDECCAN 186 194 178.1 191.1 -15

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Mutual Fund and FII Activity

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 23-Nov-2007.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 23-Nov-2007 2271.55 2813.43 -541.88

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 23-Nov-2007.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 23-Nov-2007 1274.19 748.33 525.86


Trends in Transactions on Stock Exchanges by Mutual Funds
(as on 22-NOV-2007)


Trading Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores)
22-NOV-2007 Equity 914.20 609.10 305.20
Debt 1124.20 1176.60 (52.50)
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 22-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by Mutual Funds.


Daily Trends in FII Investments on 23-NOV-2007

Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
23-NOV-2007 Equity 3328.70 4172.50 (843.90) (209.20)
Debt 50.40 48.40 2.00 0.50

The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 23-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s).

Daily Trends in FII Investments on 23-NOV-2007

Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-NOV-2007 Equity 5442.20 5214.20 228.00 56.50
Debt 17.00 55.50 (38.50) (9.50)
02-NOV-2007 Equity 5179.40 4998.80 180.60 44.80
Debt 49.60 0.00 49.60 12.30
05-NOV-2007 Equity 3322.70 4084.10 (761.40) (188.80)
Debt 175.40 119.50 55.90 13.80
06-NOV-2007 Equity 4550.20 5207.10 (656.80) (162.80)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
07-NOV-2007 Equity 4092.30 4087.20 5.10 1.30
Debt 0.00 123.60 (123.60) (30.60)
08-NOV-2007 Equity 4156.90 4119.20 37.70 9.30
Debt 146.70 121.60 25.00 6.20
12-NOV-2007 Equity 4366.10 4653.00 (286.90) (71.10)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
13-NOV-2007 Equity 4550.00 5370.00 (820.00) (203.30)
Debt 0.00 26.20 (26.20) (6.50)
14-NOV-2007 Equity 5186.80 5064.60 122.20 30.30
Debt 0.00 8.50 (8.50) (2.10)
15-NOV-2007 Equity 5112.60 4160.60 952.00 236.00
Debt 186.00 96.70 89.30 22.10
16-NOV-2007 Equity 4464.30 3675.90 788.40 195.40
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
19-NOV-2007 Equity 3508.90 3588.00 (79.10) (19.60)
Debt 10.50 14.90 (4.40) (1.10)
20-NOV-2007 Equity 3859.70 3886.50 (26.80) (6.70)
Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
21-NOV-2007 Equity 4816.70 5888.80 (1072.10) (265.80)
Debt 30.00 65.30 (35.30) (8.80)
22-NOV-2007 Equity 3246.60 5469.00 (2222.40) (550.90)
Debt 0.00 242.70 (242.70) (60.20)
23-NOV-2007 Equity 3328.70 4172.50 (843.90) (209.20)
Debt 50.40 48.40 2.00 0.50
The investments corresponding to reporting date 26-Feb-2007 include prior period adjustments.

The prior period adjustments are based on transactions of new sub accounts during the period from 01-Jan-2007 to 26-Feb-2007 and the same is given below:

Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
Prior period adjustments - Equity 3518.41 87.66 3430.75 773.91
The above adjustments are due to migration of data of new sub accounts to portal based new system of reporting.
The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 23-NOV-2007 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s).

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Disclaimer : Recommendations or suggestions given here are totally free. Care has been taken to give correct advice / information / recommendations / suggestions /tips. We take no guarantee that the mentioned analysis will work to your benefit. Since we are involved in the market, we take pleasure in giving the best for the benifit of all. We have interest in the market and may or may not have positions in some or all of the stocks that are mentioned. We do not have any clients as such. These views are purely personal. We do not take any responsibility in any profits or losses that any one incurs as a result of these views / suggestions / recommendations / advice / tip /etc. Please do your own due diligence before initiating any trades as a result of this information.

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