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Thursday 31 January 2008
Future Capital Holdings application status
Stocks in Equity
Movement of stocks in equity section in NSE on the 30th January 2008 is as follows:
Top GainersSymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtyHORIZONBAT 142.35 142.35 142.35 142.35 118.60 20.03 2500 RJL 101.00 116.90 100.00 113.25 99.70 13.59 141888 GEOINFO 173.95 205.35 173.95 188.45 171.10 10.14 163210 HTMEDIA 187.00 210.00 183.50 200.75 182.30 10.12 23965 SELMCL 203.30 215.55 197.00 215.55 195.95 10.00 197509 SUNPHARMA 1075.00 1169.90 1018.00 1154.90 1062.40 8.71 524549 PPAP 92.00 106.50 91.60 99.85 93.20 7.14 295263 TATAMETALI 158.00 175.70 158.00 173.80 162.55 6.92 199790 ASIANPAINT 1110.00 1200.00 1100.00 1181.75 1107.80 6.68 25202 AROGRANITE 93.95 100.00 85.00 94.00 88.30 6.46 14487
Top LosersSymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtySOMANYCERA 72.00 72.00 64.15 64.65 73.85 -12.46 4023 AUROPHARMA 374.10 389.00 329.00 332.75 378.85 -12.17 231316 VINDHYATEL 176.95 176.95 155.10 159.45 180.00 -11.42 318 ELECON 270.00 270.00 233.25 239.10 269.30 -11.21 360370 STAR 182.05 182.05 160.15 162.05 182.05 -10.99 122550 ADORWELD 209.00 209.35 192.30 195.30 219.10 -10.86 19000 ALKYLAMINE 117.00 117.00 97.10 99.05 110.50 -10.36 1675 NIITTECH 150.35 152.00 133.10 135.15 150.35 -10.11 617438 FTCSF5YGRO 34.95 34.95 28.85 28.85 32.05 -9.98 48843 FTCPOF3YGR 92.00 100.95 82.60 82.60 91.75 -9.97 14994
Top Gainers - NiftySymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtySUNPHARMA 1075.00 1169.90 1018.00 1154.90 1062.40 8.71 524549 ZEEL 264.35 278.00 258.00 273.30 261.95 4.33 2064194 BHEL 2081.00 2122.20 2044.75 2091.90 2051.45 1.97 828753 SAIL 218.00 225.00 214.00 219.55 216.30 1.50 10915612 TATASTEEL 716.00 740.00 710.05 723.30 715.20 1.13 1350553 AMBUJACEM 118.80 119.65 116.00 118.55 117.25 1.11 1614905 ACC 793.50 806.00 779.30 799.10 793.00 0.77 452135 PNB 667.00 675.00 651.00 670.75 665.95 0.72 791736 HDFC 2803.70 2920.10 2795.00 2884.15 2864.00 0.70 353241 TATAPOWER 1312.00 1340.00 1261.00 1316.75 1311.55 0.40 660689
Top Losers - NiftySymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtySUZLON 345.00 345.00 316.00 319.05 342.75 -6.91 4460395 HINDUNILVR 209.10 217.00 194.05 195.85 208.85 -6.22 1232694 RPL 173.00 173.00 160.00 161.05 171.45 -6.07 19050710 REL 2123.00 2123.00 1975.00 1995.00 2113.00 -5.58 1962447 BPCL 382.00 382.00 351.10 359.40 380.50 -5.55 323981 VSNL 520.00 524.00 487.55 496.75 525.80 -5.52 369019 ONGC 1030.00 1060.00 959.05 968.25 1019.80 -5.05 1076709 NTPC 213.50 217.50 200.00 201.60 211.55 -4.70 9383162 RCOM 644.95 658.00 608.10 612.40 641.10 -4.48 5159616 BAJAJAUTO 2380.00 2380.00 2220.00 2266.45 2368.60 -4.31 131241
Top Gainers - Junior NiftySymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtyASIANPAINT 1110.00 1200.00 1100.00 1181.75 1107.80 6.68 25202 LUPIN 521.95 548.00 515.00 544.85 514.60 5.88 333414 RAYMOND 345.00 374.00 328.50 364.25 345.35 5.47 101394 NICOLASPIR 296.00 332.00 296.00 310.20 296.20 4.73 209704 CORPBANK 354.00 371.75 342.00 363.05 352.90 2.88 162977 ULTRACEMCO 885.00 885.00 857.20 879.80 870.45 1.07 40067 CUMMINSIND 336.00 345.00 315.60 335.40 333.30 0.63 109988 INGVYSYABK 307.00 313.00 307.00 309.65 309.20 0.15 10686
Top Losers - Junior NiftySymbol Open Price High Price Low Price LTP Prev Close % Change Total
trd qtyAUROPHARMA 374.10 389.00 329.00 332.75 378.85 -12.17 231316 SYNDIBANK 104.90 106.90 93.50 95.40 102.90 -7.29 1555231 I-FLEX 1056.00 1075.00 995.00 1002.55 1075.20 -6.76 28709 IDBI 125.00 125.00 114.00 115.40 123.75 -6.75 5017181 JPASSOCIAT 373.00 373.00 347.10 350.35 371.50 -5.69 6591962 RELCAPITAL 2040.00 2070.00 1905.55 1939.55 2053.15 -5.53 1386200 TVSMOTOR 44.00 44.00 41.05 41.40 43.75 -5.37 1002504 GMRINFRA 190.00 190.00 174.20 176.20 184.40 -4.45 5010885 LICHSGFIN 306.70 309.90 291.00 293.05 306.70 -4.45 561674 CHENNPETRO 310.00 317.75 295.40 297.35 311.05 -4.40 287834
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Stocks on Breakdown
Stocks on breakdown after trading on 30th January 2008 are as follows : No algorithm or trading system can substitute visual inspection of chatrs. Algorithms, can at best, only make filtering easier. Since there is always a risk of loss in stock markets, any trading decision must be taken only after detailed study of charts. These are generated using custom designed swing trading algorithms. As one can never know with certainity the extent of gains or losses, the concept of trailing stoplosses is used. If a stock is in a downtrend, a buy signal is generated if the stock closes above it's "N" days highest high. The trailing stoploss is the "N" days lowest low and will change everyday till an exit is given. Here "N" refers to 2 or 5 or 20 days. Obviously a 2 day swing will generate more signals than a 20 day swing. For best results, use the 2 day or 5 day swing to buy only if the stock is trading above the 20 day swing low. The methodology is similar moving averages / crossovers. The advantage is reduced whipsaws and more efficient stoplosses. Above signals work best with trending stocks and are useless with rangebound stocks. All technical indicators will fail in rangebound stocks / markets and will generate whipsaws and false signals. Whenever a swing trade results in a loss, it means the stock is rangebound. At this point, one should study the chart and identify areas of support and resistance. Only a break above these levels will create a new trend. This is nothing but a "peak" and "trough" based on 5% change. These levels form the basis for calculation of targets. A break above a "peak" gives a resistance break. Similarly a break below a "trough" generates a support break. Targets are calculated using Fibonacci retracements. UP targets = Support + X *(Resistance-Support) DOWN targets = Resistance - X *(Resistance-Support) Where X equals 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 or 1.618 or 2.618 Depending on formation of support and resistance, targets are automatically calculated. Because of the methodology adopted, it is normal for the stock to trade significantly higher than the target. Once the stock corrects, the new "resistance" is defined and targets automatically calculated. Interpretation of this is difficult and shd be done in the context of the prevailing trend. Overbought means great strength. It does NOT mean stock will correct immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain overbought for considerable periods of time. Oversold means great weakness. It does NOT mean stock will rally immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain oversold for considerable periods of time. In an uptrend, oversold stocks present a good buying opportunity near supports (buy on declines). In a downtrend, one shd exit overbought stocks (sell on rallies). This is for daytraders only and can be unreliable due to freak trades.NSE Code Close % Ch 2 day
Swing5 day SWING 20 day
SwingPrevious Mov. Av. RSI ADX Entry Action Sup Res 20d 50d 5d 14d ARROWGROUP 65.55 -5.00% Exit 67 98 81 64 14 40 31 ASIANELEC 430.55 -8.88% Buy > 590 460 527 491 463 32 42 19 BANKBARODA 392.25 -3.79% Buy > 501 396 450 438 417 35 42 32 BPCL 359.40 -5.55% Buy > 557 363 444 440 434 17 32 21 DHAMPURSUG 67.70 -4.24% Buy > 108 70 77 88 81 10 30 28 EDUCOMP 3648.75 -7.93% Buy > 5679 3700 4300 4416 4101 31 40 34 EMKAY 274.95 -5.08% Exit 276 335 336 294 19 37 35 GANDHITUBE 216.65 -3.48% Exit ---- Buy > 241 Hold SL 200 219 241 229 212 41 47 21 GEMINI 183.40 -7.91% Buy > 309 193 209 244 229 28 36 26 HINDSANIT 63.35 -9.95% Buy > 104 64 76 80 80 27 35 27 KCPSUGIND 21.15 -4.73% Buy > 35 22 24 28 24 18 34 31 LITL 483.15 -8.87% Buy > 840 491 565 664 656 31 35 34 LOGIXMICRO 210.15 -4.74% Buy > 375 211 263 288 319 18 28 39 MAHABANK 77.40 -3.97% Buy > 97 78 87 83 81 38 44 27 MAHLIFE 635.90 -6.85% Buy > 878 650 745 766 760 32 39 34 MAHSEAMLES 391.20 -5.53% Buy > 660 403 460 513 542 25 30 40 MORARJETEX 49.05 -4.94% Buy > 77 49 52 58 0 33 40 31 MSPL 52.85 -4.95% Buy > 89 53 59 67 68 21 33 21 NAHARINVST 28.25 -3.25% Buy > 55 29 31 40 38 16 31 37 ONWARDTEC 27.90 -3.79% Buy > 52 29 42 38 38 13 26 31 PENINLAND 89.80 -6.46% Buy > 167 90 103 127 133 33 37 20 PIDILITIND 172.55 -4.96% Buy > 202 173 186 180 188 41 43 21 PRECOT 120.85 -6.32% Buy > 199 123 140 150 148 26 34 29 PTL 139.00 -4.89% Buy > 181 141 159 159 153 23 38 22 RCOM 612.40 -4.48% Buy > 845 614 676 712 715 32 36 31 REVL 250.25 -3.68% Buy > 370 251 297 293 296 30 36 26 RIIL 1727.15 -4.16% Buy > 2936 1750 2458 2245 2083 18 34 22 ROLTA 247.40 -7.44% Buy > 385 256 300 321 341 25 31 33 SHREYAS 85.15 -4.06% Buy > 159 86 115 118 112 24 34 37 SHRINGAR 77.35 -4.39% Buy > 135 78 89 104 105 29 35 32 SPARC 94.30 -4.89% Buy > 163 95 110 125 125 17 30 32 TFL 31.30 -4.28% Buy > 56 32 36 41 39 8 28 30 TVSMOTOR 41.40 -5.37% Buy > 79 42 45 59 65 19 26 36 Importance of charts
Buy and Sell signals
Rangebound trades, whipsaws and false signals
Support and Resistance levels / targets
Oversold and overbought stocks
Intraday support and resistance levels
----- With due apologies and full credits to vfmdirect.com
........................... Click here to read more!
Stocks on Breakout
Stocks on Breakout after trading on 30th January 2008 are as follows : No algorithm or trading system can substitute visual inspection of chatrs. Algorithms, can at best, only make filtering easier. Since there is always a risk of loss in stock markets, any trading decision must be taken only after detailed study of charts. These are generated using custom designed swing trading algorithms. As one can never know with certainity the extent of gains or losses, the concept of trailing stoplosses is used. If a stock is in a downtrend, a buy signal is generated if the stock closes above it's "N" days highest high. The trailing stoploss is the "N" days lowest low and will change everyday till an exit is given. Here "N" refers to 2 or 5 or 20 days. Obviously a 2 day swing will generate more signals than a 20 day swing. For best results, use the 2 day or 5 day swing to buy only if the stock is trading above the 20 day swing low. The methodology is similar moving averages / crossovers. The advantage is reduced whipsaws and more efficient stoplosses. Above signals work best with trending stocks and are useless with rangebound stocks. All technical indicators will fail in rangebound stocks / markets and will generate whipsaws and false signals. Whenever a swing trade results in a loss, it means the stock is rangebound. At this point, one should study the chart and identify areas of support and resistance. Only a break above these levels will create a new trend. This is nothing but a "peak" and "trough" based on 5% change. These levels form the basis for calculation of targets. A break above a "peak" gives a resistance break. Similarly a break below a "trough" generates a support break. Targets are calculated using Fibonacci retracements. UP targets = Support + X *(Resistance-Support) DOWN targets = Resistance - X *(Resistance-Support) Where X equals 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 or 1.618 or 2.618 Depending on formation of support and resistance, targets are automatically calculated. Because of the methodology adopted, it is normal for the stock to trade significantly higher than the target. Once the stock corrects, the new "resistance" is defined and targets automatically calculated. Interpretation of this is difficult and shd be done in the context of the prevailing trend. Overbought means great strength. It does NOT mean stock will correct immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain overbought for considerable periods of time. Oversold means great weakness. It does NOT mean stock will rally immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain oversold for considerable periods of time. In an uptrend, oversold stocks present a good buying opportunity near supports (buy on declines). In a downtrend, one shd exit overbought stocks (sell on rallies). This is for daytraders only and can be unreliable due to freak trades.NSE Code Close % Ch 2 day
Swing5 day SWING 20 day
SwingPrevious Mov. Av. RSI ADX Entry Action Sup Res 20d 50d 5d 14d BLKASHYAP 1846.65 4.20% Buy > 2080 1725 1845 1836 1844 63 52 22 CMC 878.00 3.81% Buy > 1470 787 874 1078 1096 47 38 38 GEOINFO 188.45 10.14% Buy > 282 135 175 195 204 66 48 19 IMPEXFERRO 21.50 4.62% Buy > 34 18 21 24 24 55 44 22 INDOCO 274.05 3.73% Buy > 365 254 269 292 298 57 43 27 KRBL 135.35 5.00% Hold SL 124 135 Buy SL 111 Hold SL 109 109 133 146 127 58 50 34 MANGTIMBER 29.30 3.17% Buy > 43 25 29 33 35 49 37 25 MUKTAARTS 163.85 3.90% Buy > 242 141 164 188 189 47 41 30 RAYMOND 364.25 5.47% Buy > 471 280 360 383 401 60 47 33 SKUMARSYNF 134.15 5.96% Buy > 171 90 130 143 150 56 46 33 WSI 111.35 5.00% Buy > 146 90 107 115 109 62 51 21 Importance of charts
Buy and Sell signals
Rangebound trades, whipsaws and false signals
Support and Resistance levels / targets
Oversold and overbought stocks
Intraday support and resistance levels
----- With due apologies and full credits to vfmdirect.com
........................... Click here to read more!
Monday 28 January 2008
Top Defensive Picks
-----With due apologies and full credits to Economic TimesName Div. Yield Payout Ratio# Div. Growth* Earnings* CMP (Rs.) GSK Pharma 3.5 50.0 51.0 65.0 879.2 Aventis Pharma 3.3 36.0 41.0 20.0 902.5 Clariant Chemicals 3.2 64.9 29.6 31.6 261.9 Godrej Consumer 3.3 75.0 22.8 25.8 111.0 Amtek Auto 1.6 17.0 105.0 86.7 330.3 ITC 1.6 42.0 30.0 17.8 198.2 Bajaj Auto 2.1 35.0 24.8 18.9 2300 Nestle 1.8 87.0 12.7 12.7 1380
# 3-year average * 5-year CAGR CMP as on Jan 25, 08
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Report - For 28th January
BHARTI AIRTEL
RESEARCH : HSBC RATING: BUY CMP: RS 915
BHARTI Airtel is one of HSBC’s preferred picks in the telecom sector because it believes the stock offers low risk exposure to the domestic wireless sector at attractive valuations. Bharti Airtel, with low operating and financial leverage, offers the best earnings visibility vis-Ã -vis other domestic telecom companies and trades at FY09E P/E of 18.6x. The current estimates for Bharti Airtel factor in the potential combination of high subscriber growth, low subscriber quality and high capital expenditure (capex). Unlike its peers, for whom EBITDA is likely to be subdued given the new rollouts, Bharti Airtel will continue to benefit from scale through its rising subscriber base. The creation of Indus (tower JV) is a significant catalyst as it allows Bharti Airtel to benefit from lower capex and deeper coverage, while offsetting spectrum constraints and monetising its tower assets. HSBC remains bullish on Bharti Airtel’s earnings outlook and forecasts a 25.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings per share (EPS) for FY08-10E. This view is based on robust subscriber growth, recent initiatives to stimulate usage and stable EBITDA margins.
INDIABULLS FIN SERVICES
RESEARCH: MOTILAL OSWAL RATING: BUY CMP: RS 779
MOTIAL Oswal reiterates its ‘buy’ rating on Indiabulls Financial Services with a revised target price of Rs 1,086. In its first quarter post-demerger, Indiabulls reported 270% y-o-y and 57% q-o-q growth in loan book to Rs 8,800 crore in Q3 FY08. Disbursements, at Rs 3,300 crore, were the highest ever in any quarter. Though yields declined to 21% due to an increase in secured loans, earnings grew 80% y-o-y. Post the impressive Q3 FY08 numbers, Motilal Oswal is raising its estimates on disbursements and loan book for FY09 and FY10. Indiabulls may disburse loans worth Rs 10,500 crore in FY08, which will increase to Rs 26,000 crore in FY10. This will result in 143% CAGR in loan book over FY07-10E. But by factoring in lower yields, Motilal Oswal expects the strong growth in loan book and higher fees from processing and insurance distribution to drive earnings growth. Operating efficiencies will also support earnings, which are expected to see CAGR of 81% over FY07-10E. The company has applied for a licence for its life insurance business, which is likely to be launched in Q1 FY09. Despite being a late entrant in this segment, its large customer base and wide distribution network will ensure fast growth. Motilal Oswal values Indiabulls at 3x FY10E book value (17x P/E) and the insurance venture at Rs 100 per share (at 49% stake).
BANK OF INDIA
RESEARCH: MORGAN STANLEY RATING: OVERWEIGHT CMP: RS 395
MORGAN Stanley reiterates ‘overweight’ rating on Bank of India (BoI) with a target price of Rs 525. BoI reported Q3 FY08 earnings of Rs 510 crore, up 101% y-o-y and 20% on a sequential basis — higher than the expectation of 69% y-o-y growth. The bank’s core operating profit grew 74% y-o-y on sequential improvement in margins, robust fee income growth and control on operating expenses. In fact, the bank overprovided costs during the quarter — it has proactively provided for wage arrears for FY08 on an estimated basis. Asset quality strength persisted, with BoI’s coverage ratio improving to 78% in Q3. Productivity is improving across all areas — the bank opened 101 branches last year, without adding a single employee. Core earnings were strong. BoI’s continuation of strong core earnings momentum is also impressive. This is the sixth consecutive quarter the bank has reported earnings growth of over 50% y-o-y. Even core earnings growth has averaged 40% y-o-y during this period. The stock is trading at 10x FY09E earnings, 2x book with an RoE of 21%, which is very attractive.
HDFC BANK
RESEARCH: EDELWEISS RATING: BUY CMP: RS 1,601
EDELWEISS maintains ‘buy’ rating on HDFC Bank. The bank’s Q3 FY08 profit was up 45% y-o-y, ahead of consensus estimates. Net interest income (NII) grew 55% y-o-y to Rs 1,430 crore. The bank’s business momentum increased on strong contribution from SME and corporate segments. Provisions rose q-o-q with higher specific provisioning. The bank booked one-off gains of Rs 100 crore on sale of its stake in CAMS during the quarter. It also made one-off provisions on indirect taxes of Rs 73 crore. Adjusting for these extraordinary incomes, net profit grew 36% y-o-y. Pre-provisioning operating profit grew 30% y-o-y to Rs 930 crore. Key highlights of the quarter were: (1) Net interest margins improved q-o-q to 4.3%, with decline in cost of funds and increase in yields on investment; (2) Core fee income grew 38% y-o-y; (3) The proportion of low-cost deposit declined slightly to 51%; (4) Operating expenses increased 78% y-o-y due to higher other operating expenses; (5) Overall provisioning increased 59%; and (6) Balance sheet grew 47% y-o-y. Edelweiss is revising its earnings estimates upwards for FY08E and FY09E by 2% and 6%, respectively, and expects the bank to post EPS of Rs 45 for FY08E and Rs 59.6 for FY09E, respectively. The stock is trading at 3.6x FY09E book and 24x FY09 earnings.
----- With due apologies and full credits to Economic Times
........................... Click here to read more!
Stocks on Breakdown
Stocks on breakdown after trading on 25th January 2008 are as follows : No algorithm or trading system can substitute visual inspection of chatrs. Algorithms, can at best, only make filtering easier. Since there is always a risk of loss in stock markets, any trading decision must be taken only after detailed study of charts. These are generated using custom designed swing trading algorithms. As one can never know with certainity the extent of gains or losses, the concept of trailing stoplosses is used. If a stock is in a downtrend, a buy signal is generated if the stock closes above it's "N" days highest high. The trailing stoploss is the "N" days lowest low and will change everyday till an exit is given. Here "N" refers to 2 or 5 or 20 days. Obviously a 2 day swing will generate more signals than a 20 day swing. For best results, use the 2 day or 5 day swing to buy only if the stock is trading above the 20 day swing low. The methodology is similar moving averages / crossovers. The advantage is reduced whipsaws and more efficient stoplosses. Above signals work best with trending stocks and are useless with rangebound stocks. All technical indicators will fail in rangebound stocks / markets and will generate whipsaws and false signals. Whenever a swing trade results in a loss, it means the stock is rangebound. At this point, one should study the chart and identify areas of support and resistance. Only a break above these levels will create a new trend. This is nothing but a "peak" and "trough" based on 5% change. These levels form the basis for calculation of targets. A break above a "peak" gives a resistance break. Similarly a break below a "trough" generates a support break. Targets are calculated using Fibonacci retracements. UP targets = Support + X *(Resistance-Support) DOWN targets = Resistance - X *(Resistance-Support) Where X equals 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 or 1.618 or 2.618 Depending on formation of support and resistance, targets are automatically calculated. Because of the methodology adopted, it is normal for the stock to trade significantly higher than the target. Once the stock corrects, the new "resistance" is defined and targets automatically calculated. Interpretation of this is difficult and shd be done in the context of the prevailing trend. Overbought means great strength. It does NOT mean stock will correct immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain overbought for considerable periods of time. Oversold means great weakness. It does NOT mean stock will rally immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain oversold for considerable periods of time. In an uptrend, oversold stocks present a good buying opportunity near supports (buy on declines). In a downtrend, one shd exit overbought stocks (sell on rallies). This is for daytraders only and can be unreliable due to freak trades.NSE Code Close % Ch 2 day
Swing5 day SWING 20 day
SwingPrevious Mov. Av. RSI ADX Entry Action Sup Res 20d 50d 5d 14d AXIS-IT&T 20.15 -4.95% Buy > 23 ---- Exit Hold SL 17 21 23 20 16 36 54 44 BSCFAUG08A 127.00 -5.93% Exit ---- Exit Hold SL 121 130 150 141 138 16 40 37 DHARSUGAR 25.20 -4.91% Exit 26 29 31 25 20 39 28 MORARJETEX 49.10 -4.94% Exit 51 52 59 0 26 39 36 RUBYMILLS 1346.15 -5.00% Exit 1400 1525 1678 1529 21 36 20 SUDARSCHEM 126.25 -5.00% Buy > 133 ---- Exit Hold SL 106 130 140 123 111 41 54 35 Importance of charts
Buy and Sell signals
Rangebound trades, whipsaws and false signals
Support and Resistance levels / targets
Oversold and overbought stocks
Intraday support and resistance levels
----- With due apologies and full credits to vfmdirect.com
........................... Click here to read more!
Stocks on Breakout
Stocks on Breakout after trading on 25th January 2008 are as follows : No algorithm or trading system can substitute visual inspection of chatrs. Algorithms, can at best, only make filtering easier. Since there is always a risk of loss in stock markets, any trading decision must be taken only after detailed study of charts. These are generated using custom designed swing trading algorithms. As one can never know with certainity the extent of gains or losses, the concept of trailing stoplosses is used. If a stock is in a downtrend, a buy signal is generated if the stock closes above it's "N" days highest high. The trailing stoploss is the "N" days lowest low and will change everyday till an exit is given. Here "N" refers to 2 or 5 or 20 days. Obviously a 2 day swing will generate more signals than a 20 day swing. For best results, use the 2 day or 5 day swing to buy only if the stock is trading above the 20 day swing low. The methodology is similar moving averages / crossovers. The advantage is reduced whipsaws and more efficient stoplosses. Above signals work best with trending stocks and are useless with rangebound stocks. All technical indicators will fail in rangebound stocks / markets and will generate whipsaws and false signals. Whenever a swing trade results in a loss, it means the stock is rangebound. At this point, one should study the chart and identify areas of support and resistance. Only a break above these levels will create a new trend. This is nothing but a "peak" and "trough" based on 5% change. These levels form the basis for calculation of targets. A break above a "peak" gives a resistance break. Similarly a break below a "trough" generates a support break. Targets are calculated using Fibonacci retracements. UP targets = Support + X *(Resistance-Support) DOWN targets = Resistance - X *(Resistance-Support) Where X equals 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 or 1.618 or 2.618 Depending on formation of support and resistance, targets are automatically calculated. Because of the methodology adopted, it is normal for the stock to trade significantly higher than the target. Once the stock corrects, the new "resistance" is defined and targets automatically calculated. Interpretation of this is difficult and shd be done in the context of the prevailing trend. Overbought means great strength. It does NOT mean stock will correct immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain overbought for considerable periods of time. Oversold means great weakness. It does NOT mean stock will rally immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain oversold for considerable periods of time. In an uptrend, oversold stocks present a good buying opportunity near supports (buy on declines). In a downtrend, one shd exit overbought stocks (sell on rallies). This is for daytraders only and can be unreliable due to freak trades.NSE Code Close % Ch 2 day
Swing5 day SWING 20 day
SwingPrevious Mov. Av. RSI ADX Entry Action Sup Res 20d 50d 5d/th> >14d APOLLOHOSP 490.35 5.29% Buy > 627 365 489 520 503 53 47 35 BOSCHCHASY 466.50 6.16% Buy > 492 292 455 421 398 70 60 20 CRANESSOFT 153.05 9.48% Hold SL 130 153 Buy SL 106 Hold SL 106 106 152 143 132 76 62 31 DCHL 220.70 13.65% Buy > 271 161 219 225 216 62 52 20 GKW 91.85 9.35% Buy SL 82 94 Hold SL 76 Hold SL 76 76 89 91 85 57 54 30 HONDAPOWER 247.15 8.45% Buy SL 225 ---- Buy > 263 Hold SL 200 200 247 264 258 50 46 26 IVC 320.10 8.14% Buy > 447 345 320 368 356 39 38 33 KOUTONS 980.65 6.54% Buy SL 755 981 Buy SL 700 Hold SL 700 700 950 961 843 64 59 22 KTKBANK 258.50 6.31% Buy SL 235 ---- Buy > 263 Hold SL 180 180 255 251 231 61 57 34 LT 3892.65 10.30% Buy > 4410 3491 3885 4044 4129 54 46 26 RELGOLD 1170.04 3.33% Hold SL 1075 1031 Hold SL 950 Hold SL 922 950 1169 1102 0 73 67 40 TATAMOTORS 710.45 7.88% Buy > 824 531 710 739 733 58 47 25 TULIP 971.25 9.01% Buy SL 831 ---- Buy > 995 Hold SL 721 721 960 1012 979 61 50 25 TVSSRICHAK 160.00 6.67% Buy SL 145 ---- Buy > 160 Hold SL 126 126 159 158 138 60 58 23 Importance of charts
Buy and Sell signals
Rangebound trades, whipsaws and false signals
Support and Resistance levels / targets
Oversold and overbought stocks
Intraday support and resistance levels
----- With due apologies and full credits to vfmdirect.com
........................... Click here to read more!
Mutual Fund and FII Activity
(Rs. In Crores) FII DII Trade Date Buy Sales Net Buy Sales Net 25/1/08 4,689.63 4,481.15 208.48 1,475.88 1,227.53 248.35 24/1/08 4,686.65 6,941.58 -2,254.93 2,140.83 1,023.80 1,117.03 23/1/08 5,730.70 8,752.24 -3,021.54 2,669.63 1,377.87 1,291.76 Jan, 08 84,487.26 107,501.24 -23,013.98 38,143.33 25,308.86 12,834.47 Daily Trends in FII Investments on 25-JAN-2008
Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate 25-JAN-2008 Equity 5347.20 6698.40 (1351.20) (335.00) Debt 70.80 49.60 21.30 5.30 The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 25-JAN-2008 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s). Daily Trends in FII Investments on 25-JAN-2008
Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate 01-JAN-2008 Equity 3041.10 2243.30 797.90 197.80 Debt 6.50 18.00 (11.50) (2.90) 02-JAN-2008 Equity 1437.60 1295.30 142.30 35.30 Debt 0.00 3.00 (3.00) (0.70) 03-JAN-2008 Equity 4083.80 4328.30 (244.50) (60.60) Debt 93.30 182.90 (89.60) (22.20) 04-JAN-2008 Equity 6007.10 5281.90 725.10 179.80 Debt 390.90 3.00 387.90 96.20 07-JAN-2008 Equity 4549.40 4040.60 508.80 126.10 Debt 730.80 209.80 521.00 129.20 08-JAN-2008 Equity 4891.40 4972.30 (80.90) (20.10) Debt 104.60 242.60 (138.00) (34.20) 09-JAN-2008 Equity 5529.90 4476.50 1053.40 261.10 Debt 744.00 86.80 657.20 162.90 10-JAN-2008 Equity 4859.70 4585.10 274.60 68.10 Debt 677.70 605.70 72.00 17.90 11-JAN-2008 Equity 4334.20 4965.00 (630.80) (156.40) Debt 580.60 295.20 285.40 70.70 14-JAN-2008 Equity 3906.30 3792.60 113.70 28.20 Debt 318.70 85.00 233.70 57.90 15-JAN-2008 Equity 4521.50 4347.20 174.40 43.20 Debt 241.90 119.40 122.40 30.40 16-JAN-2008 Equity 5209.90 4984.10 225.80 56.00 Debt 249.10 45.10 204.00 50.60 17-JAN-2008 Equity 4662.30 6941.90 (2279.60) (565.10) Debt 81.80 182.50 (100.80) (25.00) 18-JAN-2008 Equity 4303.30 6489.30 (2186.00) (541.90) Debt 78.50 422.40 (343.80) (85.20) 21-JAN-2008 Equity 4972.30 6328.40 (1356.10) (336.20) Debt 78.40 103.30 (24.90) (6.20) 22-JAN-2008 Equity 4896.90 7322.50 (2425.70) (601.30) Debt 142.40 236.40 (93.90) (23.30) 23-JAN-2008 Equity 7749.20 10005.50 (2256.20) (559.30) Debt 116.30 487.40 (371.10) (92.00) 24-JAN-2008 Equity 6082.50 8582.30 (2499.90) (619.70) Debt 662.00 28.00 634.10 157.20 25-JAN-2008 Equity 5347.20 6698.40 (1351.20) (335.00) Debt 70.80 49.60 21.30 5.30 The investments corresponding to reporting date 26-Feb-2007 include prior period adjustments.
The prior period adjustments are based on transactions of new sub accounts during the period from 01-Jan-2007 to 26-Feb-2007 and the same is given below:
Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate Prior period adjustments - Equity 3518.41 87.66 3430.75 773.91 The above adjustments are due to migration of data of new sub accounts to portal based new system of reporting. The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 25-JAN-2008 and constitutes trades conducted by FIIs on and upto the previous trading day(s). Trends in Transactions on Stock Exchanges by Mutual Funds
(as on 24-JAN-2008)
(Provisional and subject to revision) April 2007
Trading Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) 24-JAN-2008 Equity 1298.00 951.50 346.50 Debt 916.30 915.90 0.50 The above report is compiled on the basis of reports submitted to SEBI by custodians on 24-JAN-2008 and constitutes trades conducted by Mutual Funds.
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