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Wednesday 5 March 2008

Stocks on Breakdown

Stocks on breakdown after trading on 4th March 2008 are as follows :

NSE CodeClose% Ch2 day
Swing
5 day SWING20 day
Swing
PreviousMov. Av.RSIADX
EntryActionSupRes20d50d5d14d
ABIRLANUVO1601.60-3.59%   Buy > 19771635177517511945193338
ADHUNIK172.00-4.74%Exit----ExitHold SL 143176191173190374620
AKRUTI996.90-7.99%Buy > 1100----Buy > 1162Hold SL 9251035124011441173133112
ALBK100.35-3.09%   Buy > 121101112109117253829
ALEMBICLTD52.00-3.53%   Buy > 6853595771253127
AMAR29.85-3.40%   Buy > 3530333138293913
AMTEKAUTO285.45-4.05%   Buy > 341286330308355243231
ANKURDRUGS236.85-4.88%   Buy > 301240271262302253710
ARIHANT351.10-11.78%   Buy > 478356410404501253336
ASHAPURMIN245.60-3.59%   Buy > 307251286263313283839
ASIANHOTEL584.95-4.86%   Buy > 698589675622675334114
AVAYAGCL196.95-3.31%   Buy > 240203225210251213327
AVTNPL91.20-5.00%   Buy > 1089210097120263429
AXISBANK910.90-3.04%Buy > 998----Buy > 1040Hold SL 86593810409941043263822
BANARISUG940.00-3.70%Buy > 1000----Buy > 1020Hold SL 7879511022941925275017
BANCOINDIA34.65-4.28%   Buy > 4035383740233914
BANKINDIA309.75-6.25%   Exit327365355376203435
BANKRAJAS141.10-12.47%Buy > 172----ExitHold SL 123156195150153214226
BANSWRAS40.80-7.06%   Buy > 5743484555203421
BBL2586.50-5.54%   Buy > 31202701312028533177213333
BHUSANSTL928.65-5.85%   Buy > 1158978109710081250233440
BONGAIREFN58.20-3.16%   Buy > 7460656376253729
BSCFAUG08A127.00-4.15%   Buy > 127129135133137193950
CARBORUNIV135.10-4.86%   Buy > 157136157146154213823
CCCL809.95-6.82%   Exit8369209161010122518
CENTBOP44.55-4.19%   Buy > 6246625057223522
CESC470.90-6.20%   Buy > 592490592520561263931
CINEMAX98.25-4.61%   Buy > 116102111104124273637
CUBEXTUB61.15-4.90%   Buy > 7864726702437
DCB100.45-5.06%   Buy > 120105120108123263813
DECCANCE280.70-7.36%   Buy > 340300330305343173615
DHANUS215.15-4.99%Exit169Hold SL 215Hold SL 133216245184231565529
DWARKESH70.05-4.89%   Buy > 9071868094143116
ECLERX293.00-8.31%   Buy > 3583113403220203523
EDL158.00-6.23%   Buy > 218163195183248132738
ELECON209.25-6.63%   Buy > 260223260229265223538
ELECTCAST52.00-4.94%   Buy > 6853645972153021
ELGIEQUIP54.75-4.62%   Buy > 7556646168153213
ENERGYDEV139.95-4.73%   Buy > 181142159154202233328
EVERONN739.95-5.00%   Buy > 884741854768911334212
FACT34.15-5.01%   Buy > 4135413640274213
FCSSOFT78.10-4.81%   Buy > 9580938499293927
FDC30.60-3.92%   Buy > 3731333237253719
FINCABLES78.95-3.13%   Buy > 116809085100293518
FMGOETZE83.25-5.07%   Buy > 1098510594121152923
FOSECOIND403.50-3.27%   Buy > 455410455422441304118
FOURSOFT35.55-4.69%   Buy > 4436413944183523
FSL43.75-8.09%   Buy > 5746575160142925
GALLANTT28.45-5.01%   Buy > 3730333236193518
GANDHITUBE190.00-4.86%   Buy > 22519421120021837439
GATI114.95-4.25%   Buy > 137118134121141233817
GEMINI160.50-8.26%   Buy > 218174210182217193516
GENESYS55.00-3.42%   Buy > 7657656271243525
GITANJALI272.10-4.68%   Buy > 319285311294345153346
GLODYNE408.35-4.99%Buy > 444----ExitHold SL 365417479427400284821
GMDCLTD380.60-4.95%   Buy > 452397440408433254111
GMRINDS99.85-4.59%   Buy > 133102112108127313623
GNFC164.60-4.80%   Buy > 214172198181194233817
GREENPLY311.45-6.57%Exit----ExitHold SL 262313367316335364614
GTNIND21.40-4.04%   Buy > 2721242429213136
GUJSIDHCEM21.95-4.57%   Buy > 2822252429233424
GULFOILCOR150.25-4.57%   Buy > 214157174170230233132
HBSTOCK58.85-4.93%   Buy > 8662706991163029
HDIL729.20-9.54%   Buy > 1028800878842999173433
HILTON31.35-4.71%   Buy > 4332393543143410
HINDOILEXP99.65-6.21%   Buy > 118105115106122183923
HINDSANIT54.85-5.10%   Buy > 7358676173153133
HINDUJAVEN495.60-8.01%Exit----Buy > 595Hold SL 452505595538631213629
HONDAPOWER219.85-3.51%Buy > 233----Buy > 248Hold SL 207220248231249314119
IBREALEST552.65-7.13%   Buy > 696561672618667253821
ICRA708.45-4.36%   Buy > 870712800774853163225
IFBIND47.50-5.00%   Buy > 6850575565223519
IFCI58.15-5.14%   Buy > 7261696371314125
IGARASHI66.30-5.49%   Buy > 8269747285193635
INDIANHUME685.50-4.94%   Buy > 974705787780956213124
INDSWFTLAB55.25-5.47%   Buy > 6857615867274015
INDSWFTLTD26.55-4.84%   Buy > 3427292833263715
INDUSINDBK87.25-6.13%   Buy > 1149110297107233818
ITDCEM387.60-3.40%   Buy > 500398439424510253426
ITI38.85-4.78%   Buy > 5241464355253518
JAGRAN105.15-3.40%   Buy > 142108119113132313836
JAIBALAJI333.50-5.00%   Buy > 465342383370445253524
JAYNECOIND40.75-5.01%   Buy > 5643524757123216
JBCHEPHARM53.75-5.62%   Buy > 6255625667303916
JBMA42.35-6.92%   Buy > 5743514653223721
JPASSOCIAT225.10-7.75%   Buy > 376242280277358193139
JSTAINLESS142.50-4.23%   Buy > 170149170155179273827
JYOTHYLAB700.75-5.30%   Buy > 820703748722789354218
KALINDEE393.60-4.96%Buy > 420----Buy > 486Hold SL 375413504426449203917
KAMATHOTEL194.95-5.32%   Buy > 238205225209231303815
KIL30.25-4.72%   Buy > 4132383440203313
KOPRAN22.60-4.84%   Buy > 2923262531172935
KTKBANK244.25-4.22%Buy > 261----ExitHold SL 240250275257253254211
LANABS185.40-4.70%   Buy > 20819020819720253017
LGBROS22.30-4.09%   Buy > 2623262328233426
LOGIXMICRO196.60-3.49%   Buy > 266202260218267323839
LUMAXAUTO48.25-4.83%   Buy > 5949545161313515
LUMAXTECH57.70-6.41%   Buy > 7258656473193523
LYKALABS47.25-4.93%   Buy > 6948545569233035
MADHAV50.25-5.90%   Buy > 7550655878212923
MAHABANK51.70-3.72%   Buy > 785277647572047
MALCO586.30-7.19%   Buy > 724619724635717223621
MANALU43.70-3.74%   Buy > 5245494756203514
MANGCHEFER27.40-4.86%   Buy > 3428333035273718
MAX187.00-4.10%   Buy > 232192221201224223415
MAYTASINFR630.45-6.62%   Buy > 775651715694769153026
MCDHOLDING209.30-4.30%   Buy > 282211244234291243038
MORARJETEX37.05-5.00%   Buy > 5239444352223232
MSKPROJ104.50-4.96%   Buy > 136108123116140243422
NAGREEKCAP64.25-4.81%   Buy > 90677674102192642
NAHARINVST22.80-4.20%   Buy > 2924262534263233
NELCAST112.35-3.31%   Buy > 137115124121141112925
NFL60.30-4.96%   Buy > 7363736573264018
NITCO237.10-6.69%   Buy > 270241267252264263727
NUCHEM22.70-4.82%   Buy > 3223272526254117
OILCOUNTUB72.05-4.95%   Buy > 10373848393163313
ORIENTABRA24.45-4.86%   Buy > 2925282629253916
ORIENTBANK225.95-5.10%   Buy > 288236288261273123229
ORIENTPPR43.75-7.41%   Buy > 6147535160162542
PATINTLOG64.55-4.93%   Buy > 856783750123225
PENINLAND81.50-7.81%   Buy > 1018810190111203715
PIDILITIND148.85-6.06%   Buy > 208152188162175193416
PITTILAM52.45-4.11%   Buy > 6654665765143527
PONNIERODE41.45-4.71%Exit----ExitHold SL 3542464147384621
PRATIBHA312.05-5.71%   Buy > 389320364333372324015
PVR253.85-3.99%   Buy > 294258294261286294322
QUINTEGRA99.00-4.99%   Buy > 167104115123161132441
RCF76.35-4.98%   Buy > 101789384101273713
REPRO99.35-3.26%   Buy > 148101118113127123511
RKFORGE241.00-3.98%   Buy > 284248274265251234316
RPGCABLES38.00-4.76%   Buy > 4839434148233517
RPGLS41.40-7.49%   Buy > 854359588372057
RUBYMILLS967.10-5.00%   Buy > 1465990115011371400263119
SADBHAV1223.75-5.79%Exit----ExitHold SL 9701245143012391304344621
SANGHVIMOV239.85-3.15%Exit----ExitHold SL 231240283251276384215
SASKEN118.15-4.29%   Buy > 154120139129203172641
SATHAISPAT55.40-4.97%   Buy > 675867607021399
SB&TINTL22.40-4.88%   Buy > 2923262433273431
SEAMECLTD150.15-8.64%   Buy > 220159177174215203032
SHANTIGEAR64.30-5.58%   Buy > 7266736879293832
SHASUNCHEM55.80-4.21%   Buy > 6856685968314020
SHIVTEX27.85-4.79%   Buy > 3429323136223415
SILINV103.75-4.99%   Buy > 147106115120159232937
SINTEX429.30-4.61%   Buy > 488449488454496213516
SOMATEX27.30-3.36%   Buy > 3528313034153314
SONASTEER47.20-3.18%   Buy > 5648525057273220
SOUTHBANK168.45-4.45%   Buy > 214174195187205143336
SPARC91.75-3.27%   Buy > 1039310395115323920
SPIC24.60-4.84%   Buy > 3226292831163316
STERTOOLS67.85-6.35%   Buy > 8270797380263723
SUBEX243.35-5.73%   Buy > 303248299275301163315
SUNDRMBRAK277.00-3.87%   Buy > 350286308300329263313
SUPREMEIND235.55-5.89%   Buy > 294242272262296193533
SURYALAXMI35.40-3.01%   Buy > 4236413845293724
TAJGVK124.80-3.29%   Buy > 150129138134149193329
TATAINVEST546.35-3.14%   Buy > 649561596580630173314
TATAPOWER1234.85-5.46%   Buy > 14681250142913211378214012
TCI95.40-5.54%   Buy > 120100114107129193129
THEMISMED195.00-4.99%   Buy > 253204221219236243916
THIRUSUGAR94.90-5.01%   Buy > 1089610398114374225
TIDEWATER3170.00-5.00%   Buy > 40493255372834453717273817
TNPL100.65-4.33%   Buy > 116103111106115253719
TTKPRESTIG127.75-5.23%   Buy > 165128148138159103214
UCOBANK44.30-5.44%   Buy > 6247515161163020
USHAMART87.55-4.99%   Buy > 1078810794109293919
VAIBHAVGEM89.95-8.87%   Buy > 12599129105134122860
VENKEYS139.25-3.90%   Buy > 166141153149174213527
VIJAYABANK58.85-5.08%   Buy > 7260726674143422
VIMTALABS102.90-4.99%   Buy > 134105114112132243623
VINDHYATEL130.05-5.76%   Buy > 170135152147179263531
VIPIND111.40-4.70%   Buy > 126112124118131193720
WEBELSOLAR363.00-4.57%   Buy > 479368420398521253230
WHEELS266.00-5.34%   Buy > 320276305286295224011
WSI87.35-4.85%   Buy > 1088710093106313914
YESBANK207.40-9.27%   Buy > 258228250238244153218
ZICOM151.85-4.97%   Buy > 183152183158194313923

Importance of charts

No algorithm or trading system can substitute visual inspection of chatrs. Algorithms, can at best, only make filtering easier. Since there is always a risk of loss in stock markets, any trading decision must be taken only after detailed study of charts.

Buy and Sell signals

These are generated using custom designed swing trading algorithms. As one can never know with certainity the extent of gains or losses, the concept of trailing stoplosses is used.

If a stock is in a downtrend, a buy signal is generated if the stock closes above it's "N" days highest high. The trailing stoploss is the "N" days lowest low and will change everyday till an exit is given. Here "N" refers to 2 or 5 or 20 days. Obviously a 2 day swing will generate more signals than a 20 day swing. For best results, use the 2 day or 5 day swing to buy only if the stock is trading above the 20 day swing low.

The methodology is similar moving averages / crossovers. The advantage is reduced whipsaws and more efficient stoplosses.

Above signals work best with trending stocks and are useless with rangebound stocks.

Rangebound trades, whipsaws and false signals

All technical indicators will fail in rangebound stocks / markets and will generate whipsaws and false signals.

Whenever a swing trade results in a loss, it means the stock is rangebound. At this point, one should study the chart and identify areas of support and resistance. Only a break above these levels will create a new trend.

Support and Resistance levels / targets

This is nothing but a "peak" and "trough" based on 5% change. These levels form the basis for calculation of targets.

A break above a "peak" gives a resistance break. Similarly a break below a "trough" generates a support break.

Targets are calculated using Fibonacci retracements.

UP targets = Support + X *(Resistance-Support)

DOWN targets = Resistance - X *(Resistance-Support)

Where X equals 0.382 or 0.5 or 0.618 or 1.618 or 2.618

Depending on formation of support and resistance, targets are automatically calculated. Because of the methodology adopted, it is normal for the stock to trade significantly higher than the target. Once the stock corrects, the new "resistance" is defined and targets automatically calculated.

Oversold and overbought stocks

Interpretation of this is difficult and shd be done in the context of the prevailing trend.

Overbought means great strength. It does NOT mean stock will correct immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain overbought for considerable periods of time.

Oversold means great weakness. It does NOT mean stock will rally immediately. It is normal for a stock to remain oversold for considerable periods of time.

In an uptrend, oversold stocks present a good buying opportunity near supports (buy on declines). In a downtrend, one shd exit overbought stocks (sell on rallies).

Intraday support and resistance levels

This is for daytraders only and can be unreliable due to freak trades.

  • Pivot point = P = (H + L + C)/3
  • First area of resistance = R1 = 2P - L
  • First area of support = S1 = 2P - H
  • Second area of resistance = R2 = P + (R1-S1)
  • Second area of support = S2 = P - (R1-S1)

----- With due apologies and full credits to vfmdirect.com

No comments:

Disclaimer : Recommendations or suggestions given here are totally free. Care has been taken to give correct advice / information / recommendations / suggestions /tips. We take no guarantee that the mentioned analysis will work to your benefit. Since we are involved in the market, we take pleasure in giving the best for the benifit of all. We have interest in the market and may or may not have positions in some or all of the stocks that are mentioned. We do not have any clients as such. These views are purely personal. We do not take any responsibility in any profits or losses that any one incurs as a result of these views / suggestions / recommendations / advice / tip /etc. Please do your own due diligence before initiating any trades as a result of this information.

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