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Friday 31 October 2008

What is SRF doing ?



SRF Limited chart has been moving in a massive falling wedge since April 2006 and has recently formed a bottom of 66.5 on the 27th October 2008. One point worth nothing to have put this information across is the way the price has been oscillating between the two wedge lines. What can be the next move with the overall stock market having done a low of 225x on the nifty? Nifty has smartly recovered after that and looks like this stock should do some minor rise. The next bounce can be roughly assumed to be the top line of the wedge. If we happen to look at the climate exchange charts shown above, we see that a rough double bottom was attempted at 680 levels (the last bottom was almost an year back from where it had bounced hard). On a smaller time frame a quick double bottom was made within a span of the last 20 trading days. Assuming that this could be a intermediate bottom in the short to medium term, we can expect these values to start moving upwards. Current CLE value is up from 680 a few days ago to 970 (intra day 1000 peak has been reached). It has to be seen that a move here now can even be considered to be a dead cat bounce. SRF may or may not do a blast but if CLE values keep appreciating, so can the value of the stock for some time. The wedge on SRF is ideally ripe enough to break. The break can be on downside as well as up. Assuming that CLE values are rising and fundamentally the SRF is doing alright, we can expect the price to at least move up to the top edge of the wedge. A rough target of 100-110 can be reached in the next 2 months. Please do your own due diligence taking fundamental factors into consideration.

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