What is SRF doing ?

SRF Limited chart has been moving in a massive falling wedge since April 2006 and has recently formed a bottom of 66.5 on the 27th October 2008. One point worth nothing to have put this information across is the way the price has been oscillating between the two wedge lines. What can be the next move with the overall stock market having done a low of 225x on the nifty? Nifty has smartly recovered after that and looks like this stock should do some minor rise. The next bounce can be roughly assumed to be the top line of the wedge. If we happen to look at the climate exchange charts shown above, we see that a rough double bottom was attempted at 680 levels (the last bottom was almost an year back from where it had bounced hard). On a smaller time frame a quick double bottom was made within a span of the last 20 trading days. Assuming that this could be a intermediate bottom in the short to medium term, we can expect these values to start moving upwards. Current CLE value is up from 680 a few days ago to 970 (intra day 1000 peak has been reached). It has to be seen that a move here now can even be considered to be a dead cat bounce. SRF may or may not do a blast but if CLE values keep appreciating, so can the value of the stock for some time. The wedge on SRF is ideally ripe enough to break. The break can be on downside as well as up. Assuming that CLE values are rising and fundamentally the SRF is doing alright, we can expect the price to at least move up to the top edge of the wedge. A rough target of 100-110 can be reached in the next 2 months. Please do your own due diligence taking fundamental factors into consideration.

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A Trader's Mindset

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Unitech - what next in the very near future

Unitech is one stock which has been tumbling down live an avalanche coming off a mountain top. Assuming that it has hit a low in the very near future, it can technically bounce to at least the first fibonacci retrace level of 0.236 which stands at 65.6. It the stock is still weak, we can see more lows forming in the coming days but this value can be safely assumed to hit if market in general shows some resilience of not falling more.
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Nifty 2610 target done !

Refer to our earlier post Is Nifty that bad ? - 2610 coming ? . Did we expect that to happen ? Well frankly speaking no. That was just a target technically seen as the formation warrented that ! A massive head and shoulder formation was an indication of something bad.

The chart below shows what was the scene at that time in June.

And as of now the scene changes to bang on target. What a global me

ss it has created. Who is in profits trading that kind of stuff ? Very very few people as a thumb rule are in profits to this volatile tumbling market.

Below charts shows the situation as of close of Friday.

What next ? Wait and watch !
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What can Nifty do in the very near future

Nifty fell from 4000 to 3204 in the last few days. Assuming that the weekend bashing is over and we can ride up a little bit. first nifty level that shall easily come is .236 retrace level of 3392 and then a likelihood of 3508 can be seen in the coming days. We must say that this 3508 will again be sell off as the level warrents some even in healthy conditions. Since we are not in healthy conditions, first of all this level reaching can be painful or may turn down again. Market sentiments may start to slow down the negative trend globally but since the momentum was too strong last week, we may see things go back to square one by the week end. Be careful of the weekend again. Trade quick and for small gains if you have to habitually trade.

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FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 10th October 2008 for the October series:

Top Gainers
							% CHANGE
SYMBOL	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	OPEN_INT	CHG_IN_OI	IN O.I.
JINDALSAW	389.95	394.7	355	359.1	359000	152750	74.06
INDIAINFO	65.1	70	55.2	58.2	1782500	465000	35.29
AXISBANK	602	644	540.7	554.55	1767600	436950	32.84
KOTAKBANK	409	455	390	439.6	2401300	550275	29.73
UNIONBANK	142	150.65	137	147.3	3061800	665700	27.78
EKC	210	219.65	196.2	205.2	122000	21000	20.79
PNB	476.1	503.5	462.5	464.8	4948200	671400	15.7
HDFC	1780	1852	1641.1	1726.3	1548225	188850	13.89
PUNJLLOYD	211.3	221.35	189.15	194.9	6714750	777000	13.09
RCOM	278	283.75	230	238.7	17163300	1801450	11.73
COREPROTEC	233	244.85	123	144.4	6193500	629250	11.31
HINDALCO	82.25	90.45	77	79	33542371	3345618	11.08
NAGARCONST	63.8	65.6	53	54.35	2146000	174000	8.82
CIPLA	205	205	191.4	195.7	2712500	216250	8.66
GNFC	61.1	67	57.2	60.1	969075	76700	8.6
ICICIBANK	420.25	423	328	365.75	12572525	985250	8.5
BRFL	213	243.9	207	238.55	1681300	126500	8.14
CUMMINSIND	250.3	253.65	248.05	251.25	57000	4275	8.11
BHEL	1371.35	1409.5	1291.5	1346.45	2290650	162450	7.63
HINDPETRO	199	212	190	198.4	2971800	209300	7.58
DLF	285	307.9	281.25	284.65	11958000	790800	7.08
BANKINDIA	256	275.5	249	262.85	1693850	108300	6.83
HDFCBANK	1040	1088	980	1049.45	1663800	101200	6.48
AMBUJACEM	69.75	77	63.5	64.7	6060218	350540	6.14
YESBANK	78	86.65	69	72.35	1397000	80300	6.1
RPOWER	128.1	128.1	116.2	121.8	14271000	800000	5.94
HINDUNILVR	230	234.6	219.1	223.7	9505000	524000	5.83
SESAGOA	87.85	90.65	78	89.05	10116000	556500	5.82
TATASTEEL	315	318	282.6	289.85	11548624	622278	5.7
NIITLTD	29.7	32.5	27.5	28.5	1117950	59450	5.62
ONGC	919.95	970.95	900	923.5	5855175	281925	5.06
Top Losers
							% CHANGE
SYMBOL	OPEN	HIGH	LOW	CLOSE	OPEN_INT	CHG_IN_OI	IN O.I.
MONNETISPA	217	217	210	210	13050	-4500	-25.64
VOLTAS	61	71.05	61	64.9	1834200	-522000	-22.15
BATAINDIA	91	94.8	84.5	85.55	341250	-93450	-21.5
JSWSTEEL	252	309	240	298.45	918775	-246400	-21.15
ROLTA	141.1	156	135	146.6	812700	-201600	-19.88
ABAN	962.15	1156.95	878	1112.45	384950	-91900	-19.27
IRB	90	95.55	90	94.4	46200	-9900	-17.65
GTOFFSHORE	251.1	285	242.05	277.4	195500	-41250	-17.42
DIVISLAB	1030	1110	972	1068.5	286130	-57505	-16.73
J&KBANK	400	418.9	400	418.9	3000	-600	-16.67
BAJAJHIND	70	71.55	58	59.7	5822550	-1080150	-15.65
UCOBANK	25	30.2	25	28.95	2410000	-430000	-15.14
MPHASIS	149	149	119.55	131.8	1287200	-216800	-14.41
EVERONN	253	258	227	227.25	42800	-7200	-14.4
KFA	38.55	42.55	35	38.55	1482400	-233750	-13.62
SOBHA	105	125	102.55	121.3	377650	-57400	-13.19
ZEEL	160	176	152	164.45	2076200	-308000	-12.92
CANBK	150.25	176.85	142.6	173.85	746400	-108000	-12.64
MOSERBAER	90.1	98.5	90.1	95.95	2172225	-290400	-11.79
SATYAMCOMP	237	261	222	252	4303200	-573600	-11.76
RELCAPITAL	870	870	771.1	789.55	2735712	-364320	-11.75
CROMPGREAV	185	199	181	183.95	189000	-23000	-10.85
NAGARFERT	19	19.1	17.3	17.7	9275000	-1120000	-10.77
RECLTD	62.1	71.35	62	65.35	1131000	-128700	-10.22

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Open Interest Charts - Nifty October Puts/Calls - 10 October 2008

3400, 3500 and 3600 calls have shown considerable open interest build up. 3400 and 3500 puts on the other hand have shown a good reduction in open interest and the 3600 put has a no change in open interest. Market shall in all probability move upwards to double the calls at least.

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OI Charts - Nifty October Puts/Calls - 6 October 2008

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Volatility Index CBOE Shooting

To the surprise of almost no one who would have paid a moment’s attention to the goings-on of Wall Street Monday, when the Dow industrial average followed global indices lower on the open, skidded back below the 10,000-point mark for the first time in four years, lost as much as 800 points intraday only to cut its steepest losses in half by the close to finish off 370 points at 9955: there was a lot of volatility in the equities market Monday. In fact, according to the CBOE volatility index, there was an unprecedented amount of volatility in this market, as the VIX surged to an intraday record at just over 56 points, a jump of 25% in the session. The persistent intractability of the credit markets has exacerbated concerns about the weakness in the broad economy, while bailout efforts in Europe have heightened concerns that the financial system there might actually prove to be weaker than the banking system in the U.S. Meanwhile, there’s little chance we’ll see the Volatility Index back off sharply in upcoming sessions. While the intraday reversal that cut stock losses in half is welcome from the perspective of anybody who doesn’t like to see their retirement account fall off the table, it hardly represented the kind of capitulation that typically would mark the bottom of a selloff.

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Dow royally bashed

Wall Street suffered through another extraordinary and traumatic session Monday, with the Dow Jones industrials plunging as much as 800 points -- their largest one-day point drop -- before recovering to close with a loss of 370. The catalyst for the selling, which also took the Dow below 10,000 for the first time in four years, was investors' growing despair that the spreading credit crisis will take a heavy toll around the world.

Investors have come to the realization that the Bush administration's $700 billion rescue plan and steps taken by other governments won't work quickly to unfreeze the credit markets.

That sent stocks spiraling downward in the U.S., Europe and Asia, and drove investors to sink money into the relative safety of U.S. government debt. Fears about a global recession also caused oil to drop below $90 a barrel.

"The fact is, people are scared and the only thing they're doing is selling," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "Investors are cleaning out portfolios and getting rid of everything because nothing seems to be working."

The selling was so extreme that only 264 stocks rose on the NYSE -- and 2,986 dropped. That's a telling sign considering the stock market is considered a leading economic indicator, with investors tending to buy and sell based on where they believe the economy will be in six to nine months.

Monday's stock trading extended what has been an exceptional stretch of volatility, in which triple-digit drops in the Dow are becoming almost commonplace. The steep decline indicates that investors are becoming more convinced that the country is leading a prolonged economic crisis that is shifting to other nations.

"The market view is shifting from looking just at the misery of the financial sector to the global economy," said Georges Ugeux, chairman and chief executive of New York-based Galileo Global Advisors. "There are enough indication that two things are happening: The crisis is spreading to other sectors, and that it is becoming global."

Ugeux believes Monday's rout had little to do with any short-term problems facing the market, such as paralyzed credit markets or ailing financial companies. He believes that, regardless of the late-day rebound in stocks, "the reaction is clearly giving a downtrend and that there is a lack of confidence of investors into the future growth of the U.S. and the world economy."

The Dow fell as much as 800.06, then recovered in erratic trading to a loss of 369.88, or 3.58 percent, to close at 9,955.50, dropping below 10,000 for the first time since Oct. 29, 2004. The Dow surpassed its previous record for a one-day point decline -- 778, which the blue chips suffered a week ago when investors feared the bailout package might not pass Congress.

Broader indexes also tumbled. The Standard & Poor's 500 index shed 42.34, or 3.85 percent, to 1,056.89; and the Nasdaq composite index fell 84.43, or 4.34 percent, to 1,862.96. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies dropped 23.49, or 3.79 percent, to 595.91.

In Asia, the Nikkei 225 closed 4.25 percent lower. Europe's stock markets also declined, with the FTSE-100 down 5.77 percent, Germany's DAX down 7.07 percent, and France's CAC-40 down 9.04 percent.

The global sell-off came after governments across Europe rushed to prop up failing banks, while the governments of Germany, Ireland and Greece also said they would guarantee bank deposits. As the U.S. tries to repair its battered banking system, the German government and financial industry agreed on a $68 billion bailout for commercial-property lender Hypo Real Estate Holding AG. And France's BNP Paribas agreed to acquire a 75 percent stake in Fortis's Belgium bank after a government rescue failed.

The Fed also took fresh steps Monday to help ease credit markets. The central bank said Monday it will begin paying interest on commercial banks' reserves and will expand its loan program to squeezed banks.

Joseph V. Battipaglia, chief investment officer at Ryan Beck & Co., said government intervention certainly might help. However, he believes investors are sensing that what's happening in the economy is a shift in the extent to which consumers and businesses take on debt, a change that will take years to play out.

"This is a global deleveraging of many economies," he said. "It might appear that you're going into the abyss where the economy grinds to a halt and the financial system goes into complete disarray. But, what the market is really reading here is that this is a global phenomenon, and when you delever like this, it is a process that takes a very long period of time measured in years, not quarters."

The anxiety was again obvious in the credit markets. The yield on the three-month Treasury bill fell to 0.43 percent from late Friday at 0.50 percent. Demand for bills remains high because of their safety; investors are willing to take extremely low returns just to have their money in a secure place.

Investors also moved into longer-term Treasury bonds. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 3.47 percent from 3.60 percent late Friday.

Anthony Sabino, a professor of law and business at St. John's University in New York, said the "market is displaying one of its worst traits with a herd mentality, and investors have an appetite for feeding on fear." He cautions that, while there are deep economic and financial problems being faced, it is still not a nightmare scenario.

"Most certainly, this is not the Great Depression of the 1930s, but (is like) the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s -- and we bailed them out," he said. "Once people catch their breath, they'll see this is the proper analogy and this will breathe life back into banking institutions."

But, most analysts believe that there will be no quick fixes to the current financial crisis. Ryan Jacob, portfolio manager for the Jacob Internet Fund, said he's sensing the market might be getting closer to a short-term bottom but that problems for the economy likely will persist.

He said the passage of the bailout package, billionaire investor Warren Buffett's investment last week in General Electric Co. and even a skirmish between Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. over control of Wachovia Corp. are positive signs.

"We've had some positive anecdotal events in the last week so it's making me a little bit more confident," Jacob said. "These are all signs that make it more likely than not that we're trying to find a near-term bottom."

He's been hunting for bargains lately.

"We had had been a little bit cautious up until really about a month ago," he said. "Over the last few weeks we've been increasing our position levels."

Frederick Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co., believes investors are eager for any signs about the well-being of the economy. He doesn't believe that will happen until Wall Street overhauls its expectations for growth of corporate earnings and the overall economy.

"Wall Street at this point is shifting its attention from whether Congress was going to act on the emergency stabilization bill to the realization that the economy is slowing significantly faster than most analysts had expected," he said. "The downturn has shifted from first gear to about third gear in about two weeks."

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Is India walking into a Financial Mess ?

----- source - marc faber
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Nifty - what next ?

The one week of trading has shown nifty shooting down from 4292 to 3719 rather rapidly. And from the lows the pullback of .236 level and even .382 level ...... all three came today splendidly with the nifty in a rather bashed up position or oversold position. The close of 3938 even did show that the .382 level was respected and nifty did a little resting here. The next levels to go are 4006 and if market is weak will stall here and start slipping again with speed. Else on a healthy mood this level and beyond will take the market easily to 4074 levels which is .618 pullback. The move is 140 odd points and can do it in a hurry as the fall had been in the past few days. This level is a little consolidation point which should propell nifty up or down. If this is sustained we still can go up to 4170. Why are we looking at this level? Perhaps, the big fellas know we all are chart watchers and just work on major key levels. The minor levels are less significant and need not even be kept in mind. So where can the big fella turn ? At some point when things start to tumble upwards and most are least thinking of the down. What actually is the game plan is beyond comprehension.

Post the Dow Jones trading time we get to see that the American markets almost hit a 500. Does this add to our sentiments ? To some extent yes, as the last few days nifty here has been going not in perfect sync with the American market. But in all likelihood, our markets should go gung-ho and at some time should see some profit taking later or in the end to culminate with a trading holiday on the 2nd.Taking a slightly larger time frame chart we see that right now critical levels for nifty are 4065 and 4173.
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