Nifty after 27 july 2007

What next ? 4420 was the trend line hit and Friday nearly did that. Add a 1 per cent margin to get a 4380 for whipsaws .....

Take another case of nifty. Mid June to end July when the top was made...... We have done 0.382 or thirty-eight percent retrace of 4440 already in that Friday jerk. A 0.5 or fifty per cent retrace is at 4376 which nearly coincides with the above mentioned target of 4380. This will come very easily.

Now is the point. If we go to that 0.618 or sixty-two per cent retrace, it becomes a risk for that level is where the market automatically starts to move towards the full or hundred percent retrace. This level is 4311. The market generally stops here for a breather before moving on in the same direction. So if the market has to hold it must not to that rather precarious level of 4311.
Is this possible? Can we take a long at 4380/4376 levels? Or how about somewhere near that 4311 ? You have got to be smart to either take a smart gamble early or the moment it turns around back to rise up..... Do not try to mimic situations; for every time, there is a different story and a different plot these big fellows play.
Remember you are second smartest. The big smart is the market.
Once all the above situations fail.......what if they fail? The full retrace is at 4100 levels. Lots of other intermediate levels can be calculated. Try to remain simple and clear. If you can sense the futures and options market - the puts and calls - you can be a better judge.
And if all hell breaks, there are still more levels but take one step at a time. But keep in mind the next step as well, well in advance.