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Wednesday, 24 October 2007

Nifty Expiry Day - Jan to Sep 2007

Have a look below and you will see the expiry day nifty intraday movement - what it has been doing .....? A quick look shows that the last one hour or so is the time when nifty bangs on up or down by 30 to 50 points. Is that trade-able ? Well it all depends what your mind set it . Some intraday jobbers work huge volumes and small gains. Some try with small volumes but large gains.
How can we try and trade these moves tomorrow ? Last expiry of September was the only one out of the 9 images that you see below that have had spikes in the last one hour. How can we trade them ? If you know the direction, take a position in that direction. Some smart people do this. They keep an eye on the PUTS and CALLS of each pair of nifty strikes. The premiums rapidly start deteriorating.Keep an eye on the nifty and on the PUT-CALL pair. The moment both become same, theoretically that is the entry point. But ideally it does not happen. The lesser the time left, the better are the rates. Say if you are able to get a PUT-CALL pair at 5 to 10 bucks, that is a good price. At 10, one needs 20 points to cover the cost. Or even so, if you wish to trade only one side, one can observe that one side remains strong where premium does not dip. So this perhaps is the best direction.
In some cases, it so happens that one pair which is close to the current price starts generating huge volumes. Huge volumes generally are indications when the punters just close nifty there ........ where all the PUTS and CALLS get destroyed. Nobody earns here and it just is s total whitewash.Such situations have to be avoided.
Best of luck for Thursday.









........................... Click here to read more!

Tech Mahindra Limited

Earnings rebound expected; Buy

Cutting estimates & PO; Retain Buy on strong growth

Post revs being a little short in 2Q, BT growth seeing sluggish growth in last couple of quarters due to restructuring in BT and management change and Rupee appreciation, we are cutting our estimates by 7-8% for FY08-10e. While we reduce PO to Rs1,650, we retain Buy for 24% upside, on strong 34% EPSg during FY07-09E on ML adjusted basis (factoring 5 year write-off of upfront payment to BT, though Tech Mahindra (TML) has written off fully) & 40% on reported basis.
BTGS ramp led earnings rebound from next quarter
Management said that it has transitioned 500 of the 1200 positions (25% of estimated requirement) already identified. With transitioning costs already factored in the current quarter, we expect margins to improve given significant billings from BTGS deal, resulting in double digit growth rates in earnings from 3Q.
2Q: Revs a little short; Tight margin management
TML reported 2Q revenue growth of 2.4% qoq, 2% lower than MLe. Margins remained flat at 22%, despite BTGS transitioning cost, helped by higher Utilization levels (excl fresher’s). It reported nine new client additions and added 1954 net employees during the quarter, increase of 11% to manpower base.
Maintain Buy; Strong two-yr 34% EPS growth (adj. basis)
Our PO of Rs1,650 is at 1 PEG (FY07PE to FY07-09e) and implies a target FY09e P/E of 19x on ML Adj EPS of Rs.85. We believe this is fair given sharp anticipated earnings growth of 34% (FY07-09e), robust IT spends by telecom service providers and increasing trend in offshoring.

Stock Data:

PriceRs1,329
Price ObjectiveRs1,940 to Rs1,650
Date Established22-Oct-2007
Investment OpinionC-1-7
Volatility RiskHIGH
52-Week RangeRs779.10-Rs2,050
Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn)US$4,213 / 125.9
Average Daily Volume121,301
ML Symbol / ExchangeTMHAF / BSE
Bloomberg / ReutersTECHM IN / TEML.BO
ROE (2008E)64.9%
Net Dbt to Eqty (Mar-2007A)-5.4%
Est. 5-Yr EPS / DPS Growth25.0% / 25.0%
F ree Float12.5%

Estimates (Mar)
(Rs) 2006A 2007A 2008E 2009E 2010E
Net Income(Adjusted - mn) 2,354 6,125 7,948 11,954 13,500
EPS 18.1 47.12 61.14 91.95 103.85
EPS Change (YoY) 123.10% 160.30% 29.80% 50.40% 12.90%
Dividend / Share 10 2.18 12.62 18.52 20.73
Free Cash Flow / Share 8.95 -13.16 33.1 60.63 76.27

Growth trajectory to return; Buy
2Q PAT beat MLe by 10% led by other income. Revenue was marginally below our estimates. Revenues from BT grew by 2% and 4% qoq during Q1 and Q2, given the recent restructuring. Moreover, given a couple of management changes in BT, we expect growth rates to be subdued. We are cutting earnings by 7 to 8% across FY08-10 to factor in possible sluggishness in BT, slower BT Global Services ramp than assumed by us and Rupee appreciation. Consequently we have our PO to Rs1,650 (from Rs1,940) but retain Buy for 24% upside driven by a strong earnings growth of 34% and rebound in earnings to double digit sequential growth from next quarter given significant ramp this quarter.
We believe the stock is attractively valued at 16x FY09e given strong 34% EPS CARG (07-09E) on ML Adjusted basis (factoring in a 5 year write off of upfront payment to BT, though TML has written off fully) and 15x FY09e and 40% EPS CARG (07-09E) on reported basis.

Encouraging commentary on BTGS
Management said that revenues from BTGS commenced in 2Q and billing would be “material & significant” in 3Q. It indicated that nearly 1,200 positions have already being identified and nearly 500 is in transition currently. With estimated 4,300 positions to be created, we believe management already has visibility on 25% of position, which is encouraging.

Margin expansion likely

EBITDA margins eased by 9bps during the quarter to 22%, lower than expected. While Utilisation (excl freshers) improved by 400bps to 74%, margin impact primarily was driven by transition costs in BTGS deal. With billing to commence from 3Q we expect EBITDA margins to improve by 200-300bps during the next two years.

Upside from BT restructuring remains
Revenues from BT grew by 2% and 4% during current year, as against double digit growth witnessed during the past 6-7 quarters. Given the recent restructuring in BT and management changes, we expect growth rates to be subdued. However we remain positive in long term as the restructuring is likely to drive more work offshore than before. Management too reiterated that one should now expect more holistic end to end deals rather than standard ADM outsourcing. These deals in our view could involve the vendor offering multiple service lines and could potentially be larger in size. TML too has now started offering BPO work to BT, a service offering which was introduced last year to Non BT clients.
Macro environment conducive
Management reiterated its stance on a strong demand environment with telecom service providers, also reflected in strong client additions. Even Wipro and TCS reported double digit growth rates in revenues from telecom service providers segment. It added 9 new clients during the quarter and also entered the cable and direct broadcast satellite market.
2Q results: Revs a little short; Strong margin mgt
  • EBITDA margins remained at 1Q levels despite transitioning cost in BTGS, helped by higher utilization level (excl freshers)
  • PAT exceeded MLe by 10% primarily driven higher margins and higher forex gains during the quarter. Other income includes forex gains of US$4mn. Management indicated that US$17mn gains were sitting in reserves currently.
  • Attrition during the quarter increased to 31% from ~20%. Management indicated that around 400 candidates failed to perform in the training test conducted by TML, which resulted in higher attrition during the quarter.
Price objective basis & risk Tech Mahindra (TMHAF)
Our PO of Rs1,650 is at 1PEG (FY07e PE to FY07-09e) and implies a target P/E of 19x on ML Adjusted EPS basis of Rs85 and at a discount to peers such as Infosy (22x FY09e). We believe this is fair given sharp anticipated earnings growth of 34% (FY07-09e), robust IT spends by telecom service providers and the increasing trend in offshoring.
Risks to our rating are rapid growth-related execution risks, high vertical (telecom) and client concentration (BT- 64% revenue). Industry-wide risks include growing competition, wage and attrition pressures and risk of rupee appreciation.

-----With due apologies and full credits to Merrill Lynch-----

........................... Click here to read more!

Sunday, 21 October 2007

Mutual Fund and FII Activity

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 19-Oct-2007.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)



CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII19-Oct-20078192.749943.5-1750.76


Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 19-Oct-2007.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)

CategoryDateBuy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII19-Oct-20071758.021571.76186.26


The data is provisional in nature and is subject to changes, inter alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

NSE data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload.

BSE data has been compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing
orders on BOLT-TWs in equity segment.




Mutual Funds :
Trading Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores)
01-OCT-2007 Equity 760.20 888.00 (127.80)
Debt 1636.50 603.60 1032.90
03-OCT-2007 Equity 647.50 749.60 (102.10)
Debt 1229.50 573.50 656.00
04-OCT-2007 Equity 590.60 1122.60 (532.10)
Debt 1840.60 962.00 878.60
05-OCT-2007 Equity 592.50 867.40 (274.90)
Debt 2106.70 594.90 1511.70
08-OCT-2007 Equity 396.40 727.70 (331.20)
Debt 2273.50 894.00 1379.50
09-OCT-2007 Equity 917.10 1258.00 (340.90)
Debt 2628.60 929.10 1699.40
10-OCT-2007 Equity 1052.30 1406.80 (354.50)
Debt 1620.10 995.80 624.30
11-OCT-2007 Equity 1146.60 1145.70 1.00
Debt 1939.80 804.20 1135.60
12-OCT-2007 Equity 881.40 1605.20 (723.80)
Debt 1989.30 946.80 1042.50
15-OCT-2007 Equity 1265.50 1154.10 111.40
Debt 1201.00 973.30 227.70
16-OCT-2007 Equity 1154.10 1454.30 (300.30)
Debt 1694.90 1359.70 335.20
17-OCT-2007 Equity 1313.60 1297.40 16.20
Debt 1249.50 1365.80 (116.30)
18-OCT-2007 Equity 1107.00 1372.50 (265.50)
Debt 1394.20 995.30 398.90
Total Equity 11824.799 15049.301 -3224.502
Debt 22804.2 11998.0 10806.199


FIIs:
Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-OCT-2007 Equity 6303.60 2810.30 3493.30 855.80
Debt 81.60 0.00 81.60 20.00
03-OCT-2007 Equity 4933.70 2737.70 2196.00 538.00
Debt 525.40 67.70 457.70 112.10
04-OCT-2007 Equity 8194.50 5033.00 3161.50 774.50
Debt 91.30 38.90 52.40 12.80
05-OCT-2007 Equity 4403.80 3828.80 575.00 140.90
Debt 237.30 33.50 203.80 49.90
09-OCT-2007 Equity 9160.40 5740.60 3419.90 837.80
Debt 458.30 202.90 255.40 62.60
10-OCT-2007 Equity 5364.40 3413.30 1951.10 483.70
Debt 272.60 0.00 272.60 67.60
11-OCT-2007 Equity 6043.10 4295.30 1747.90 433.30
Debt 291.70 0.60 291.20 72.20
12-OCT-2007 Equity 6301.70 5310.70 991.00 245.70
Debt 984.20 34.30 949.90 235.50
15-OCT-2007 Equity 5510.90 4729.90 781.00 193.60
Debt 226.10 0.00 226.10 56.00
16-OCT-2007 Equity 8184.00 4325.60 3858.50 956.50
Debt 5.00 0.00 5.00 1.20
17-OCT-2007 Equity 6832.60 5678.50 1154.10 286.10
Debt 30.10 111.40 (81.20) (20.10)
18-OCT-2007 Equity 6076.50 7853.10 (1776.60) (440.40)
Debt 0.00 215.20 (215.20) (53.30)
19-OCT-2007 Equity 8355.00 8229.40 125.70 31.20
Debt 59.50 29.40 30.00 7.40

........................... Click here to read more!

Identify your Financial Goals at the Outset

For individuals, the first step in their financial planning exercise is to set their goals/objectives. By setting your goals you know exactly what you want and can accordingly redouble your efforts to realise your objectives.

For individuals, making investments has different purposes. For some it may be simply for saving money as and when required for future needs, while for others it may be towards a specific goal/objective.

An individual’s life is full of events. While some events are unpredictable such as accident or sickness, many of them are basic, yet important life stage events like child’s education, marriage, planning to buy a property, retirement planning. A common link between both predictable and unpredictable events is that it can put tremendous strain on your finances, so if you are well prepared for the same, it may not be as burdensome.

This is where the importance of setting goals/objectives becomes palpable. When you make aimless investments without any objective you may face some difficulties:

  1. You have saved some money, but you do not have a specific objective in mind. If need be, you can employ it for something as critical as buying a house/property. At the same time you have no qualms about buying a car with that money or even going for a vacation. Coincidentally, finances for your child’s education are also expected to be met from that investment, ditto your daughter’s marriage. So you have a half a dozen needs and just one fund. This is a perfect recipe for a financial disaster.

  2. Expectedly, you are not aware when and for what purpose you will require money in an emergency. However, you could have at least planned for a contingency fund/reserve, but didn’t. In such a scenario when you meet with an emergency situation, you find yourself in a lurch since you have nothing to fall back upon. If you have set aside another fund for a critical objective like child’s education, you may be tempted to dip into that fund to handle the emergency, which is a regressive step as far as your child’s future is concerned.

  3. If you do not have funds when you need them (like in an emergency) you may be tempted to take a loan (increase your liabilities) or ask a favour from your friend (which can be an embarrassment if it happens often). Either ways, this is not the best way to counter a financial emergency and can impact your finances significantly.

The above-mentioned problems can be countered through a straightforward solution - identify your objectives well in advance. This has some strong indisputable benefits:

  1. When you set objectives upfront, you know the purpose of the money as also the timing (when you will require the money).

  2. Your facing a financial crunch is highly unlikely as you are aware about the quantum of money required for an event that is planned for well in advance, and thus you have made your investments accordingly. Even if it’s an emergency, you are well prepared for it through a contingency fund.

  3. Once your planning is in place, you are self-sufficient and are in no need to ask favours from any source.

Since your financial planning exercise is heavily dependent on your ability to set clear objectives, it should be very comprehensive, and should make provision for predictable as well as unpredictable events.

While there are several important objectives an individual must plan for, we have taken one that is critical for most parents – child’s education. The cost of education in today’s age can be prohibitive. However, if you have planned for it, the cost may not prove all that burdensome. Let’s see how this can be made possible.

Assume that at present an MBA program of 2 years in a leading business school costs Rs 500,000. The age of your child is 5 years today and he/she will pursue the course at the age of 20 years. The time available to plan for your child’s education is 15 years. Assuming that the cost of an MBA degree appreciates at 10% per annum, the degree after 15 years would cost Rs 2,088,624. Now this seems to be a bit too much, doesn’t it? Not when you plan for it.


Planning for the future
Amount you wish to accumulate (Rs) 2,088,624
Tenure (years) 15
Assumed return (CAGR) 12%
Amount to be invested annually (Rs) 56,026
Amount to be invested monthly (Rs) 4,430
(Returns are indicative in nature)


If you have your objectives and investment plans in place, this amount may not be that difficult to achieve. Now that you are aware of the amount required for your child’s education, the next step is to make the investments to achieve that target. Let us assume that over a 15-Yr period, you make investments in well-managed diversified equity funds which yield a cumulative return of 12% CAGR (compounded annualised growth rate). This would entail investing around Rs 4,430 per month. Suddenly the Rs 2 m (Rs 20 lakhs) education fees do not appear so daunting.

Imagine, what would be the consequence if you have not planned for this astronomical sum in advance. Paying for your child’s education at that stage would prove to be a mammoth task for you. The above strategy of planning well in advance holds good for other objectives as well such as buying a property or your child’s marriage among others.

The key to successful investing lies in regularly setting tangible, realistic goals and working towards achieving them. Individuals should have multiple portfolios, each of them catering to a earmarked objective. While setting objectives could be an easy task, the challenge is to get the right asset allocation. A well-qualified and honest investment advisor can play a vital role in this. But the onus of planning well in advance to realise your objectives is on you.


--- With due apologies and full credits to personalfn.com


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Becoming a crorepati is easier than you thought

You must have come across, or atleast heard of, crorepati investors at some point in time and surely that would have influenced you. At some point you may have nursed this ambition to be a successful investor, a crorepati, but probably did not have an understanding of the investment strategy behind it. Actually, every investor dreams of becoming a crorepati, unfortunately, many don’t really know how to make that happen. If you are one of them, then there is help at hand.

Many consider accumulating Rs 10 m (1 crore) an uphill task. Indeed it is difficult and there is no denying this. But, in our view, it is certainly not impossible. It’s all about having the right approach. Start by thinking rationally. Many a times, investors get impatient because the targets they have set for themselves are beyond them. You have to accept the fact that Rs 10 m cannot be accumulated overnight, and hence your roadmap to accumulating such a large sum of money must be realistic in terms of investment amounts, tenure and expected return.

By breaking your target of becoming a crorepati into smaller components like investment tenure and expected returns, you immediately turn a very formidable objective into something that is imminently achievable.

Needless to say, this is just the first step. The next step is to mobilise your resources and make necessary investments to achieve your objective of becoming a crorepati. For this you must first know how much you need to invest to achieve the Rs 10 m target. In this note, this is exactly what we have outlined.

Broadly there are two options for investors; you can select the one that suits your requirement. While the first option deals with determining the amount that you have to invest to accumulate Rs 10 m over a stipulated time frame (i.e. you have a defined investment time frame); the second option will aid you in finding the tenure over which your investments can become Rs 10 m (i.e. you have a defined investment amount). In both the options, you have to assume the rate of return at which you expect your investments to grow.

Option 1: You know when you need Rs 10 m; but don’t know how much to invest
If you have defined the time frame over which you want to accumulate Rs 10 m, but don’t know how much you will have to invest then this is the option for you.

Amount you wish to accumulate (Rs) 10,000,000
Your investment time frame (Yr) 20
Expect rate of return pa - CAGR (%) 15
Amount to be invested annually (Rs) 97,615
Amount to be invested monthly (Rs) 7,654

Let us understand this with the help of an example. Let’s say you want to build a corpus of Rs 10 m, 20 years from today. You expect your investment portfolio to generate a compounded annualised return (i.e. CAGR) of 15%. So in this case, you have to invest approximately Rs 97,615 pa or Rs 7,624 pm. Note that, while calculating monthly investments, you have to take the number of months instead of years (in this case it will be 240 months).

Option 2: You know how much you can invest; but haven’t defined a time frame
Unlike in Option 1, where you know the investment tenure over which you want to accumulate Rs 10 m, over here the tenure is fluid so you still have to determine the same. What is clear for you over here is the amount you can invest annually.

Amount you wish to accumulate (Rs) 10,000,000
Money you can invest annually (Rs) 50,000
Expect rate of return pa - CAGR (%) 15
Time needed to accumulate Rs 10 m (Yr) 24.6

For example, if you can invest Rs 50,000 pa and expect your investments to grow at 15 % pa; then your investments will take approximately 24.6 years to become Rs 10 m.

Once you are clear with the numbers and know how to proceed with your investments, the next step is to make actual investments. This is where the services of an honest and competent financial advisor will come into play. He is the one who will draw an investment plan tailor-made for you.

Investors must note that like any other financial planning activity, becoming a crorepati is not a one-time exercise. The reason for this is that, in the calculations, you have to make assumption like rate of return, which is not fixed and are subject to change. Besides, over time, with an increase in your earnings, your capacity to invest may increase. Also possibly, some of the investments recommended by your financial planner may not deliver in line with expectations, so they may have to be replaced. Some of these factors could disturb your plans to become a crorepati and hence it’s important that you (along with your financial planner) take corrective steps to ensure that you are on track at all times.


--- With due apologies and full credits to personalfn.com

........................... Click here to read more!

Five Common Investment Mistakes

If you are an investor who believes that getting invested is a simple 3-step process i.e. getting hold of an investment agent, filling up an application form and signing a cheque; then you got it all wrong. Investing is a lot more 'sophisticated' than that. It is an important activity that involves systematically short-listing your most important investment objectives and preparing an investment plan to realise them in the best possible manner. Although this may sound a little difficult, it can be achieved simply by avoiding some very common investment mistakes. Investors must note that since the list of mistakes one must avoid is endless; we have highlighted the five most common mistakes.

1. Investing without a plan

The first and most critical step while investing is to outline your investment objectives. Setting an investment objective simply means prioritising your needs into short, medium and long-term investment goals. For instance, planning for vacation (short-term), planning to buy property (medium to long-term), planning for retirement (long-term). Often investors stumble at the starting point while defining investment objectives; this in turn gets their financial plan in a tizzy.

2. Not diversifying well enough

Diversification is one of the basic tenets of investing. At Personalfn, we regularly meet clients who have invested a large portion of their monies in a single asset (like real estate for instance) or a single investment (like a stock). While such investors may do well during a runup in that asset/market (like real estate or stocks), it takes a downturn to underline how important it is to spread your eggs in more than one basket. Investors, depending on their risk profile should diversify their portfolios across asset classes like equities, fixed income, gold and real estate, among others. Similarly, within an asset class, they should diversify across various avenues, for instance within fixed income they should invest in fixed deposits, fixed maturity plans and small savings schemes. More than anything else, diversification helps to minimise/spread risk particularly during a downturn, as one investment can be a backup for another.

3. Ignoring risk

Often investors select an investment avenue/scheme simply because it provides better returns or is recommended by a friend, family member or investment advisor. Investment decisions should not be influenced merely on the basis of performance or a strong recommendation. Investors should understand that various investments have varying risk profiles. For instance, stocks/equity funds have a higher risk profile, while debt is relatively low risk. You must select an investment based on whether it suits your risk profile. For instance, a 55-Yr old who is headed for retirement must avoid technology stocks, which can prove apt for a 30-Yr old.

4. Getting married to your investments

Often investors have 'pet' investments and they can get attached to the same. So despite a dismal show, some 'pet' investments manage to hold their ground in the portfolio. Getting attached to your investments can prove detrimental to your investment plan. Is that house/car/vacation more important or a non-performing investment? The answer is obvious to any rational investor. Ensure that you review your portfolio regularly and weed out the duds. If an investment is no longer contributing to your investment objective, it has no business being in your portfolio.

5. Timing the markets

Some investors often delude themselves into believing that they are experts. So more than investing, they are often engaged in 'pastimes' like timing the markets. To be sure, even when market-timing works (which is rare since no one can predict stock market movements accurately and consistently), it does not do significantly better than regular investing regardless of market movements. Studies have shown that even if an investor called the market bottom consistently and accurately over a period of time, he would have done only slightly better than the investor who invests (the same amount) regularly over the same time period. This is no magic; this is the result of cost averaging and compounding (which incidentally Albert Einstein called 'the greatest mathematical discovery of all time').

Put simply, this implies that risk-taking investors must abandon the temptation to get caught up with stock market highs and lows. Instead, they must work at regularly setting aside a sum of money and investing the same in line with their risk profiles regardless of stock market fluctuations.


--- With due apologies and full credits to personalfn.com


........................... Click here to read more!

Saturday, 20 October 2007

Nifty Intraday move on 19th October 2007

Nifty on Friday did more chaos by falling down adding to the woes of the people stuck in naked future longs and calls. Puts were the instruments heavily traded. Traders could be imagined buying and selling them like potatoes and onions in the vegetable market. But the only problem was that the volatility was so huge, only big players with deep pockets were able to do the same or the small ones were playing with as little as possible.
A very good move was formed during the day for jobbing. This was even announced on the chat group a number of times. We are not sure who all or how many did materialize from this. It was something like this. Nifty today was behaving like DOW does. Nifty was moving in a wide channel which was more than a 100 points wide. The movements were going in perfect symmetry as nifty was falling perfectly in that channel and hitting the ends of the channel perfectly well. After 1 p.m. when nifty hit the lower line around 5107 a call was initiated as the 5100 was held and it started to bounce back. The logical 5100 was being held was the great relief for all and the call was initiated immediately. The rise was slow and steady and took nearly three quarters of an hour to reach the top of the channel at 5222 where a target was met. And for any one observing the Fibonacci values, if this trade was held on with a stop PROFIT, a peak later was generated at 5259. The total spread in this move was over 150 nifty points.
Keep watching channels. Not much technicals required. Keep drawing lines. Trends keep breaking and new ones keep forming. A major trend with a major break can simply be traded to give you all the benefit for the day enough to cover your whole week or month if traded properly and judicially. Do make sure over a larger time frame if you are going in the right direction. If the larger time frame directions says opposite, trade this move rather carefully. And if the larger time frame move is in the same direction as this current move, play the shots with more and more. All the best for the next situation.

........................... Click here to read more!

Thursday, 18 October 2007

Power Grid intraday move on 17th October 2007

Something which was missed out totally was the Power Grid stock. A fantastic channel formation took place with an excellent breakout which could have done wonders again. We should all keep an eye to such stocks. Unfortunately, it slipped the eye. ........................... Click here to read more!

Mutual Fund and FII Activity

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 17-Oct-2007.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)

CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII17-Oct-20075868.287880.34-2012.06


Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance and MFs on 17-Oct-2007.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)

CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII17-Oct-20071811.981526.92285.06


The data is provisional in nature and is subject to changes, inter alia, on account of custodial confirmation process, modifications etc.

NSE data has been compiled on the basis of trading codes entered by the trading members at the time of order entry and corresponding client category classification provided by the trading members as part of unique client code details upload.

BSE data has been compiled on the basis of marking of 'client type' while executing
orders on BOLT-TWs in equity segment.





Mutual Fund Activity for this month shows that lots of selling has been going on for the current month in the equity market.
Trading Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores)
01-OCT-2007 Equity 760.20 888.00 (127.80)
Debt 1636.50 603.60 1032.90
03-OCT-2007 Equity 647.50 749.60 (102.10)
Debt 1229.50 573.50 656.00
04-OCT-2007 Equity 590.60 1122.60 (532.10)
Debt 1840.60 962.00 878.60
05-OCT-2007 Equity 592.50 867.40 (274.90)
Debt 2106.70 594.90 1511.70
08-OCT-2007 Equity 396.40 727.70 (331.20)
Debt 2273.50 894.00 1379.50
09-OCT-2007 Equity 917.10 1258.00 (340.90)
Debt 2628.60 929.10 1699.40
10-OCT-2007 Equity 1052.30 1406.80 (354.50)
Debt 1620.10 995.80 624.30
11-OCT-2007 Equity 1146.60 1145.60 1.00
Debt 1939.80 804.20 1135.60
12-OCT-2007 Equity 881.40 1605.20 (723.80)
Debt 1989.30 946.80 1042.50
15-OCT-2007 Equity 1265.50 1154.10 111.40
Debt 1201.00 973.30 227.70
16-OCT-2007 Equity 1154.10 1454.30 (300.30)
Debt 1694.90 1359.70 335.20
Total Equity 9404.199 12379.3 -2975.1006
Debt 20160.5 9636.9 10523.6


The FII activity as seen below shows that most of the days they have in fact been buying.
Reporting Date Debt/Equity Gross Purchases(Rs Crores) Gross Sales(Rs Crores) Net Investment (Rs Crores) Net Investment US($) million at month exchange rate
01-OCT-2007 Equity 6303.60 2810.30 3493.30 855.80
Debt 81.60 0.00 81.60 20.00
03-OCT-2007 Equity 4933.70 2737.70 2196.00 538.00
Debt 525.40 67.70 457.70 112.10
04-OCT-2007 Equity 8194.50 5033.00 3161.50 774.50
Debt 91.30 38.90 52.40 12.80
05-OCT-2007 Equity 4403.80 3828.80 575.00 140.90
Debt 237.30 33.50 203.80 49.90
09-OCT-2007 Equity 9160.40 5740.60 3419.90 837.80
Debt 458.30 202.90 255.40 62.60
10-OCT-2007 Equity 5364.40 3413.30 1951.10 483.70
Debt 272.60 0.00 272.60 67.60
11-OCT-2007 Equity 6043.10 4295.30 1747.90 433.30
Debt 291.70 0.60 291.20 72.20
12-OCT-2007 Equity 6301.70 5310.70 991.00 245.70
Debt 984.20 34.30 949.90 235.50
15-OCT-2007 Equity 5510.90 4729.90 781.00 193.60
Debt 226.10 0.00 226.10 56.00
16-OCT-2007 Equity 8184.00 4325.60 3858.50 956.50
Debt 5.00 0.00 5.00 1.20
17-OCT-2007 Equity 6832.60 5678.50 1154.10 286.10
Debt 30.10 111.40 (81.20) (20.10)

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Stocks in FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 17th Oct 2007 for the October series:

Top Gainers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
TATAPOWER 1228 1240 1089.9 1184.1 18.41
RELIANCE 2500 2729 2250 2713.5 9.74
HCLTECH 270 298 251 294.65 8.74
OMAXE 330 338 290 327.65 7.19
HAVELLS 595 722.5 573 713.15 5.82
BANKINDIA 300 317.85 271.15 301.65 5.19
MARUTI 1135 1230 1085 1175.65 5






Top Losers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
IDEA 147 153.9 132 152.85 -25.05
PURVA 455.9 504 400 498.15 -24.06
CROMPGREAV 340 370 300 364.95 -22.38
SOBHA 920 1005.9 911 994.5 -16.76
ZEEL 325 338.25 284 333.3 -16.74
EKC 193.6 234.65 193 229.85 -16.15
FEDERALBNK 351 382 321 376.6 -16
DLF 901.1 904 792.3 896.85 -15.68
BEML 1475 1528 1276 1514.85 -14.27
AXISBANK 810 883.5 712 874.6 -13.73
JPHYDRO 69 74.5 62.1 72.45 -13
NICOLASPIR 262 291.95 255 288.2 -12.73
ADLABSFILM 625 727 565 708.4 -12.65
HCC 164 185.4 151.2 179.7 -11.58
INDIAINFO 951.1 1024.4 850 997.5 -11.52
SUZLON 1700 1793 1551.1 1778.9 -11.45
APIL 875 992 820 968.95 -11.25
PATELENG 700.1 734.4 660 713.7 -11.13
ABAN 3900 3967 3301 3928.3 -10.52
LITL 424 444.8 390 432.95 -10.15

The data for the 17th shows that a lot of stocks have shed Open Interest, baring a very few. This was a day market with a down circuit in the index in the very first minute of opening of the stock market and lots of recovery later on. A lots of longs would have cut positions in losses running into a good misfortune for them simulating the 17th May 2004 fall.

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Tuesday, 16 October 2007

Companies filing new offers with SEBI

Draft Offer filed with SEBI in October :

Persistent Systems Limited
Exide Industries Limited
Shriram EPC Limited
Reliance Power Limited
Gammon Infrastructure Projects Limited
IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited
Prince Foundations Limited
Austral Coke & Projects Limited
Future Capital Holdings Limited
Ybrant Technologies Limited
Vijay Infrastructure Limited
Anu's Laboratories Limited
TCG Lifesciences Limited


Rights Issue Draft Letter of Offer filed with SEBI in October:

Bodal Chemicals Limited
Network 18 Fincap Limited
The Dhanalakshmi Bank Limited
The Indian Hotels Company Limited


Draft Offer filed by Mutual Funds with SEBI in October:


MF-Quantum Gold Fund
MF - Escorts Fixed Maturity Plan
MF - UTI Fixed Term Income Fund - Series IV
MF - Kotak FMP 15 M Series 4 and 5
MF-DWS Fixed Term Fund - Series 42
Taurus Parsoli Ethical Fund
DSP Merrill Lynch Natural Resources and New Energy Fund
Kotak FMP 13 M Series 3 and 4
Kotak FMP 14M Series 3 and 4
Principal Pnb FIxed Maturity Plan 540 Days - Series II
DWS Fixed Term Fund - Series 39
DWS Fixed Term Fund - Series 40
DWS Fixed Term Fund - Series 41
ICICI Prudential Fusion Fund - Series III
ICICI Prudential Interval Fund - II
ING Interval Fund
Kotak FMP 12 M Series 3
Kotak FMP 12 M Series 4 and 5
Kotak FMP 16M Series 2
Kotak Focussed Sector Scheme
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Reliance intraday move on 15th October 2007

Another setup simple channel was formed in Reliance on Monday, the 15th. This time though it looked initially as it a wrong idea was passed on to the people on chat as the channel was a little too wide (30 pointer). And with less than an hour to go, the move was never expected to come. But the major factor in the market yesterday was that the market was rising steadily without Reliance participating. And as expected and history has justification to it that Reliance moves at the end, Reliance did come with a breakout and a little pullback to touch the channel and then a final break to give complete target.
Perhaps for anyone not understanding the charts, these moves are simple and need no technical knowledge. One just has to build an eye for such formations and trade with high accuracies. The above move had us trading the break. It could have been on either side. Had it dipped, a short could have been initiated. Trying not to predict the move is the key in this channel break formation.
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Stocks in FnO

Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 15th Oct 2007 for the October series:

Top Gainers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
CUMMINSIND 432.55 442.95 426 438.15 43.37
CMC 985 1094.85 950 1050.5 37.42
FEDERALBNK 380.25 394.3 380.25 392.95 35.43
LITL 460 491 455.3 463.85 29.84
ARVINDMILL 71 75.75 70.7 73.35 27.24
IVRPRIME 459.9 472.4 457.6 462.5 24.43
NAGARFERT 59.25 63.25 59.25 61.2 23.32
HAVELLS 594.8 646.7 594 638.85 22.59
STROPTICAL 239 271.15 238.15 266 20.38
VSNL 531 545.9 529 536.35 17.98
ALOKTEXT 73.3 76.2 72.6 73.1 17.5
SCI 214.75 251.6 214.75 248.6 17.41
BHUSANSTL 1005 1088 995 1070.85 17.09
HCLTECH 303 305.5 296.05 299.4 15.2
HDIL 758 781 758 773.45 14.2
NAGARCONST 295 316.7 294.3 310.3 12.37
HCC 165 171.8 163 165.4 12.2
MAHSEAMLES 556 565.4 546 548.05 11.85
BHARATFORG 296.5 299 288 291.35 11.66
YESBANK 197.4 213 196.5 209 11.35
AIRDECCAN 161 165.5 155.65 157.35 10.93
KESORAMIND 578.35 609.8 578.3 600.1 10.81
OMAXE 330 340.35 329.1 331.1 10.77
PURVA 482 499 477.4 484.35 10.38






Top Losers





% CHANGE
SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I.
ROLTA 640 648.7 634.95 641.6 -16.57
AXISBANK 758 831.7 756.35 817.75 -13.82
HDFCBANK 1465 1526.8 1465 1496.55 -13.75
BATAINDIA 209.5 222.8 209.5 218.9 -13.06
UNIPHOS 372.5 385 366.5 383.25 -12.48
CORPBANK 378 391.4 376.1 389.2 -11.48
BEML 1375 1485 1375 1478.2 -10.8
IDEA 142.65 147.9 142.65 147.15 -10.66

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Disclaimer : Recommendations or suggestions given here are totally free. Care has been taken to give correct advice / information / recommendations / suggestions /tips. We take no guarantee that the mentioned analysis will work to your benefit. Since we are involved in the market, we take pleasure in giving the best for the benifit of all. We have interest in the market and may or may not have positions in some or all of the stocks that are mentioned. We do not have any clients as such. These views are purely personal. We do not take any responsibility in any profits or losses that any one incurs as a result of these views / suggestions / recommendations / advice / tip /etc. Please do your own due diligence before initiating any trades as a result of this information.

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