16 charts on Nifty puts and calls for September have been posted below. Some charts show minor build ups in the open interest. The changes are minor and as such clear cut pattern cannot be appreciated from this. Perhaps the crude oil shoot up post the market hours does not reflect.
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Tuesday, 23 September 2008
OI Charts - Nifty September Puts/Calls - 22 September 2008
Sunday, 14 September 2008
Nifty Shorting Setup
Nifty is giving a rather perfect Head and Shoulder Pattern for a down side to test the previous lows. Can this work ? If it does .... it shall be a beautiful trade to initiate. What more things do we need to look into to be sure that this works ? We are at supports or close to supports and can do a break out breaking everyone's contention that things are going bad now. This is what the big fellas must be thinking as they trades verses the rest of the herd. If you are an Elliot wave counter, try to visualize if the trend is down or up. Volumes have to seen in response as well. Volumes give a good picture. But the punter is again smarter. Doing a massive volatile gap up or gap down spoils the whole volume perspective. Here comes a different item to track. See the delivery volumes. Lots more .... lots of other parameters can be visualized. Do your study before you do any thing. All the best !
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Saturday, 13 September 2008
Invest in what India needs
Investment guru, college professor and author Jim Rogers is best known for the Quantum Fund he co-founded with George Soros. A person who doesn’t mince words on the policies of central banks, politicians and the need to invest in commodities, he was in India to inaugurate a commodity-linked equity fund launched by Birla Sun Life Asset Management Co. Ltd. Cutting quite a flamboyant figure with his blue bow tie with pink stripes and suspenders that have charts of stocks, commodities and currencies etched on them, he spoke on the bull market in commodities, inflation, crude oil and the subprime crisis.On stocks and bondsStock markets around the world are very expensive and can be for some more time. Bonds are terrible places to invest. We are going to have more inflation. I tell people all the time to sell any bonds if they hold any. Anywhere in the world. I tell people’s bond portfolio managers to get another job because they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. On commoditiesMost people need a sector in order to make money. We have a sizeable market where things are going up all the time. We have such a market—raw materials, natural resources, commodities—call it what you will. We have long periods of rise in commodity prices, followed by long periods of decline followed by long rise again. It’s been going on for a long, long, long time. Commodities are the second largest asset class in the world, second only to foreign currency.We have a bull market in commodities as we’ve had many times in the past. If you’ve got to own something, you got to be owning commodities because supply-demand imbalances are in commodities and not in stocks.On oil decliningOil doubled in the last year. Whenever you have something doubling in a year, its overdue for correction. And we’ve had world economic recession. You put this together… This is the way markets work. There is nothing evil, or nefarious, or dangerous about it.The bull market in oil started in 1999. Oil has gone down 40%, or 50% three times and everytime people said the bull market is over. But it’s not over. There is a correction happening and I’ve no idea how long it will go on. But I do know that nobody’s discovered an major oil fields in the past 40 years. Supply has declined for everything. Short of a perpetual economic collapse, prices of oil will go higher and higher.On subprime crisisA lot of mortgages were ill-conceived to say the least. We’ve had the worst credit bubble in world history and it originated from America. We are now paying the price. Of course, the whole world is paying the price. And it’s not over yet. It’s going to last longer than anyone expected. We are going to have the worst recession in America since the second world war. If they (the US government) keep on propping up failed companies (such as Freddie and Fannie) the situation will get worse and worse. America is the largest economy in the world and it’s going through hard times...so anyone who does business with America will be affected.On agri-businessIn agriculture, you invest in about anything. It has recently come down, but I expect it to much much higher over the next decade, or so. The world has the lowest inventory of agricultural products for the past 50, or 60 years. The number of acres, or hectares (under cultivation) are declining. Lots of what we consume—sugar, wheat—we are using it in fuel tanks. In my view, therefore, it is a good place to invest.Top picks in commoditiesThings like sugar and cotton are far, far below their all-time highs. I am not saying these are the best, but I will go and do some homework and some research on coffee, sugar and cotton...maybe silver...maybe Zinc... These are the places I see an opportunity.Top picks in IndiaIf Asia is going to continue to grow, if India is going to continue to grow, the best way to invest is to buy things that India has to have and has to consume. The best is commodities.Some (equity) sectors are going to do well whatever the situation. India has a huge water problem. Gigantic. If you are in the water business, you are going to make a fortune. If you are in the agri business, you are going to make a fortune. Indian tourism has a great future. On the dollarI’m pessimistic on the US dollar and have been for a long long time. The US dollar is a terribly flawed currency and getting worse. Many people are worried about paper currency and are looking for something to protect themselves against inflation. The dollar has been going down for the past seven years. Everyone is pessimistic on the dollar. I still try to get out of all the dollars I have. Some countries are already moving away from the dollar (for merchandise trading). Eventually, everyone will move away from it.On inflationInflation is going to get worse in the whole world. It is next year’s story, next decade’s story. Part of is due to money supply (increasing), but supply and demand imbalance too contribute. Unless they destroy demand, which I don’t think is going to happen, you are going to see worse and worse inflation.On controls and bansControls have always been negative. They have never worked and have only worsened the situation, throughout history. When things go up, they (politicians) say a temporary ban will save us. They say that inflation in India is because of futures trade. It’s astonishing anybody can say something like that. If they (politicians) want prices to go down, I suggest they go to the fields and produce some more food.
----- With due apologies and full credits to livemint dot com
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Tuesday, 9 September 2008
Highest Volatility Stocks
Following is a list of stocks on the NSE which are traded in the futures and had the highest volatility in the futures segment after trades on the 8th September 2008 : SYMBOL CASH QUANTITY TRADED CASH ANNUALIZED VOLATILITY FUTURES ANNUALIZED VOLATILITY IBREALEST 4776164 123.475554 125.024443 RANBAXY 2764538 65.920491 116.514486 FSL 1958032 104.254926 102.467203 HDIL 3677208 99.582945 102.176732 NOIDATOLL 1147979 95.397913 95.985889 INDIAINFO 1578541 89.867503 94.215517 KOTAKBANK 1709104 90.230179 90.312429 ORBITCORP 423085 87.789115 89.242916 AIRDECCAN 1094402 85.691003 87.868163 WALCHANNAG 1488927 86.088491 87.285421
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OI Charts - Nifty September Puts/Calls
Some minor buildup in 4600 puts. 4500 puts added over 6 lac puts. 4400 puts added whooping 9 lac puts.Over 7 lac added in 4600 calls. About 3 lac was added in 4700 calls. Over 2 lac added in 4800 call. 1.5 lac was addition in 4900 calls.Both sides some setup made. Can be both sides on Tuesday.Dow has fired very well, so the long calls will benifit.
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Thursday, 28 August 2008
Monday, 25 August 2008
FnO
Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 22nd August 2008 for the August series: Top Gainers % CHANGE SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE OPEN_INT CHG_IN_OI IN O.I. SREINTFIN 112.4 112.4 107.5 108.6 12250 7000 133.33 IBREALEST 277 280.7 267.5 271.55 480350 169650 54.6 FSL 40.1 40.85 39.55 40.1 57000 19000 50 COREPROTEC 276 291 274.3 286.85 1368750 425250 45.07 NOIDATOLL 44 46.15 43.4 44.85 1238200 352600 39.81 PTC 81.8 81.95 80 80.4 110450 30550 38.24 NUCLEUS 168.25 169 168.25 169 91850 25300 38.02 ABGSHIP 369.95 369.95 365 369.95 6600 1650 33.33 MRF 3550 3570 3530 3570 400 100 33.33 GTLINFRA 38 42 38 41.55 3773300 814800 27.54 TORNTPOWER 115.1 118.35 113.65 116.7 93500 18700 25 GVKPIL 40.45 41.5 39.65 40.8 456000 90250 24.68 MLL 77.5 81 77.5 80 392000 68600 21.21 RIIL 938 961.9 930.6 942.25 62800 9000 16.73 EVERONN 514 533.8 514 521.4 12400 1600 14.81 GSPL 63.5 64.2 62.9 63.2 195200 21350 12.28 UCOBANK 37 38.7 37 38 870000 95000 12.26 NBVENTURES 248.1 255 248.1 253.95 45600 4800 11.76 BALAJITELE 161 166.95 158.05 164 42500 3750 9.68 WALCHANNAG 273 280 273 276.3 67900 5600 8.99 AKRUTI 759 785 755 780.75 39000 2400 6.56 J&KBANK 485 495 485 495 5700 300 5.56 Top Losers % CHANGE SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE OPEN_INT CHG_IN_OI IN O.I. GTL 192 194 190.95 193.25 4080000 -2220000 -35.24 PURVA 181 188.75 179 182.05 101500 -52000 -33.88 NIITLTD 87.1 88.3 87 87.2 575650 -292900 -33.72 JSTAINLESS 128.35 129.5 126.55 128.25 2686000 -1149000 -29.96 VOLTAMP 836 844.75 836 844.75 2000 -750 -27.27 BIRLACORPN 167.55 169.7 167.5 168.8 553350 -178500 -24.39 INDIACEM 138.15 142.8 137.5 140.8 4225300 -1332550 -23.98 BRFL 346 352.75 341.1 350.55 1444400 -414000 -22.28 LAXMIMACH 1091.05 1101.2 1087.05 1092.85 184100 -52000 -22.02 JINDALSTEL 1905 1946 1900.05 1921.4 600960 -140480 -18.95 EDUCOMP 3210.3 3234.95 3131.3 3209.15 191325 -43875 -18.65 INDUSINDBK 58.95 60 58.2 59.6 2113650 -465850 -18.06 SYNDIBANK 58 58 56.8 57.6 6661400 -1453500 -17.91 DABUR 87.05 90.75 86.8 89.75 1655100 -340200 -17.05 GMRINFRA 99.3 102.3 98.25 101.65 15910000 -3142500 -16.49 AXISBANK 643.5 684.7 643 681.25 2101725 -400950 -16.02 ITC 181.2 184.3 180 182.45 9640125 -1827000 -15.93 MAHSEAMLES 305 308.95 304 305.7 231600 -39000 -14.41 CUMMINSIND 307 308.5 292.2 298.2 69825 -11400 -14.04 MOSERBAER 91 93.5 90.35 92.25 3539250 -562650 -13.72 TCS 818 827 807.05 821.25 2386250 -373500 -13.53 BINDALAGRO 28 28.1 27.2 27.5 7063650 -1019700 -12.61 ONGC 1001.35 1033.9 988.4 1020.85 5038425 -712350 -12.39 HOTELEELA 31 33.2 31 32.7 7878750 -1087500 -12.13 BANKINDIA 250.25 260.9 250.2 258.75 3730650 -490200 -11.61 YESBANK 128.1 131 127.15 128.75 1964600 -240900 -10.92 STER 605.15 630 602 624.55 5198622 -629844 -10.81 PARSVNATH 114.15 117.05 113 115.05 4081000 -493500 -10.79 SHREECEM 610 613 607.05 608 11800 -1400 -10.61 I-FLEX 1244.5 1258.5 1243.55 1250.65 522750 -61800 -10.57 GAIL 386 392.8 372 388.95 1873500 -208500 -10.01
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Friday, 22 August 2008
Wednesday, 20 August 2008
The PUT game of last few days
Monday 11th we had posted charts on OI showing built up in 4400, 4500 and 4600 puts. Had some one taken an entry even on Tuesday, this would have almost doubled the money like it has done for the big fellas. Some times these setups are fake to distract the public to buy one side where as the game goes on the other side. But this setup was caught as built up had appeared all across the near and far puts. Even yesterday since dow was down, the markets here should start on a negative note hence giving good exit positions or puts. It may be of interest to note that the big fella has still not squared off positions.
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FnO
Following is a list of top gainers and losers in the futures and options market in the NSE on the 19th August 2008 for the August series: Top Gainers % CHANGE SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I. DABUR 96.15 96.15 90.35 90.85 28.33 KOTAKBANK 594.7 596.8 560.35 578.45 15.95 STAR 182.55 195.75 182.55 191.2 15.89 TRIVENI 105 110.8 102.6 110.05 14.47 NAGARCONST 128.4 132.2 124.1 128.2 13.06 BANKINDIA 260 264.5 252.6 260.45 9.7 LT 2660 2699.9 2641.5 2679.5 9.51 HDIL 415 426.65 400.25 406.35 9.43 CROMPGREAV 251.75 258.85 248.2 256.1 9.39 BAJAJHIND 174.6 183.8 173.5 183 9.08 BALRAMCHIN 89 97.45 89 96.8 8.24 INDIAINFO 142.65 144.75 136.25 138 8.17 PIRHEALTH 313 313 307 307 7.69 BRFL 342.65 353.2 339.5 348.9 6.44 PNB 467.1 469 457.1 462.45 6.28 SATYAMCOMP 419.8 424.9 402.25 407.3 6.17 APIL 418 418.3 407 415 6.14 APTECHT 234 236.05 221.4 226.55 6.04 BEML 727.05 727.05 712.4 720.05 5.7 AXISBANK 672.05 694 672.05 684.9 5.39 Top Losers % CHANGE SYMBOL OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE IN O.I. GRASIM 1975 1990 1925 1972.9 -30.89 SKUMARSYNF 68.5 68.5 64.7 66.6 -13.36 CENTURYTEX 484 491.1 477 487.4 -12.64 HINDALCO 125 131.5 125 130.25 -10.86 SHREECEM 595.05 610 595 610 -9.59 GNFC 118.7 122.65 117.75 122.05 -9.4 ULTRACEMCO 610.5 617.5 592.5 613.35 -9.01 ACC 590 594 557 561 -8.23 MAHSEAMLES 317 317 315 316.7 -8.19 INDIACEM 145.85 147.5 141.65 144.75 -8.16 POLARIS 106.4 108.7 104.75 106.95 -7.49 ABB 840.1 871 840 863.35 -6.41 INDIANB 112.1 115.9 112.1 115.6 -6.41 PARSVNATH 116 118.9 113.7 116 -6.36 ROLTA 324.9 331 319.35 327.8 -6.02 MTNL 104 105.15 102.65 104.8 -5.95 RPOWER 160.2 161.15 154.2 157.9 -5.78 HINDPETRO 216.05 221.5 215.1 218.8 -5.17 BHUSANSTL 900 900 892 894.55 -5.06
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General Computer Security
# Install the latest Antivirus Software on all your computers and never disable them. Popular antivirus softwares include Kaspersky, Bit Defender, Nod32, Antivir, Grisoft AVG and Quickheal. Also install a personal firewall and an anti-spyware solution. Popular firewalls include Antivir, Grisoft AVG, Quickheal, 3Com and Sonicwall.
# Update antivirus/ anti-spyware/ firewall at least every 15 days. Carry out a complete system scan with your anti-virus at least once a week, or better, auto-schedule it to run every Friday.
# There are a few free online antivirus scanners available at Trend-Micro, Kaspersky and F-Secure.
# Don't download or open attachments from unknown senders. Even if the sender is trusted, ensure that the content is relevant. Even non-executable files like *.doc files can contain macro viruses and Trojans. There are some dangerous programmes called worms, which don't need human interaction. You can be infected by simply opening an e-mail or by visiting a Web site and that's it. So always stay alert. Avoid opening e-mail attachments that contain .vbs, .scr, .exe, or .pif file extensions. Files that end in these extensions are most likely to contain some sort of viruses.
# Latest Web browsers such as Firefox, IE 7 & Opera offer innovative new security features, so it is necessary to update old browsers to their latest versions.
# Never download any files especially executable files over P2P sharing networks (peer-to-peer), as you can never be absolutely certain as to what they really are. P2P file sharing programmes can lead to the installation of a lot of adware and spyware. Try downloading executables from authentic and well-known Web sites; don't download files from any random Web site.
# Try not to visit warez, porn sites or Web sites that provide cracks and serials because most of them have a lot of spyware, trojans and viruses. A single visit and you are most likely infected with hundreds of malicious programmes.
# Be familiar with the programmes installed on your computer. If you notice that a new programme is installed without your permission, possibilities are that it might be something malicious.
# Read the installation agreements carefully when you download something from the Internet. Pay attention to the terms and conditions or EULA (end-user license agreements) of the programme being installed. Reference to third party installation should be given more attention. Some EULA's tell you that, if you install the programme, you have to also agree to install some spyware with the software. Check the independent sources, because some EULA's do not mention about the spyware.
# Back-up your computer on a regular basis, at least weekly. Copy your important documents and files onto a USB drive, CD or a DVD for safekeeping. Don't wait for the disaster to happen, take the precautions beforehand. Create system restore points periodically.
# Never respond to unsolicited e-mail. To those who send spam, one response or 'hit' from thousands of e-mails is enough to justify the practice. Additionally, it validates your email address as active, which makes it more valuable, and therefore opens the door to more spam.
# Beware of phishing attacks. Sites like AntiPhishing offer latest updates on phishing along with some good security tips.
# Don't chat with strangers or accept any file, especially executables from an unknown person on chat. Don't click on any links given by someone you don't know.
# Do not accept links or downloads from strangers even if it is tempting. There have been cases where spyware like trojans and key-loggers have been hidden in simple picture files with .jpg extensions. You never really know what is contained inside a file which looks attractive.
# Be cautious while displaying your profile, especially your personal details, photographs, videos and contacts on social networking sites. Your profiles and contacts may be misused by other people.
# Install parental-control or filtering softwares like those from Websense (LINK) that helps you choose what can be seen on the Internet and monitor the activities of any users.
Online Shopping Security
# While purchasing online, look for signs that these are secure (SSL secured sites or 128 bit encryption) like shopping.rediff.com. At the point when you are providing your payment information, a golden-coloured lock appears (for SSL secured sites) on the right hand side corner of the browser or the beginning of the Web site address should change from http to https, indicating that the information is being encrypted ie turned into code that can only be read by the seller.
# Your browser may also signal that the information is secure with a symbol, such as a broken key that becomes whole or a padlock that closes.
# Carefully use credit-cards and online banking for online shopping. Check your credit card and bank statements at regular intervals. Notify the bank immediately if there are unauthorised charges or debits. Avoid using credit card details and online banking on public computers and in cyber cafes. It is very unsafe because most of them are infected with viruses, trojans and key loggers.
# Some banks have launched their services like Net Safe to create temporary credit cards with a limited value to transact online. Paypal is also a secure way to do the transactions .This way, in the worst case scenario you can minimise the impact.
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Tuesday, 19 August 2008
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